Defence Critical Minerals Market (2026-2036)
The global Defence Critical Minerals Market was valued at USD 4,569.3 million in 2025. This market is expected to reach USD 12,912.4 million by 2036 from an estimated USD 7,547.4 million in 2026, registering a CAGR of 5.5% during the forecast period (2026-2036). In terms of volume, global defence demand for tungsten, the largest mineral by value, is projected to reach 34,268 tonnes by 2036 from an estimated 17,865 tonnes in 2026, at a CAGR of 6.7%.
- Published
- Oct 2026
- Pages
- 356
- Format
- PDF + Excel
- Report ID
- MR-2291
- Base year
- 2025
- 2025 · BASELINE
- $4.57B
- 2036
- $12.91B
- CAGR 2026–2036
- 5.5%
2025 baseline · 2026–2036 forecast at 5.5% CAGR · hover a bar for the value
Key highlights
The global Defence Critical Minerals Market is projected to reach USD 12, 912.4 million by 2036 from an estimated USD 7,547.4 million in 2026, at a CAGR of 5.5%. Growth in 2025 and 2026 was driven mainly by prices, while growth after 2026 is driven mainly by defence production volumes.
China controls about 79% of tungsten mine output, more than 90% of rare earth refining for magnets, about 94% of gallium refining, and about 80% of refined antimony, and between 2023 and 2025 it introduced export licensing or bans on gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, and 12 of the 17 rare earth elements.
Prices outside China rose sharply: ammonium paratungstate rose from a five-year average of about USD 300 per mtu to more than USD 3,000 per mtu in April 2026, and antimony peaked at about USD 59,750 per tonne in July 2025.
By mineral, the tungsten segment is expected to account for the largest share of 50.3% of the market in 2026, whereas the lithium segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 12.0% through 2036. In volume, rare earth elements grow fastest, at 9.7% per year.
Under the July 2025 agreement with MP Materials, the U.S. Department of War bought USD 400 million of preferred stock and guaranteed a price of USD 110 per kilogram for NdPr for ten years, the Defense Logistics Agency awarded United States Antimony a contract of up to USD 245 million, and the U.S. launched the USD 12 billion Project Vault stockpile initiative in 2026.
North America is expected to account for the largest market share of 44.6% in 2026, while Latin America is projected to register the highest CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period, and Saudi Arabia and Poland are the fastest-growing country markets.
Report summary
| Particulars | Details |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2026-2036 |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Estimated Year | 2026 |
| CAGR (Value) | 5.5% |
| Format | PDF, Excel & Cloud Portal · 356 pages |
| Market Size (Value) in 2026 | USD 7,547.4 Million |
| Market Size (Value) in 2036 | USD 12,912.4 Million |
| Market Volume | Tonnes, by mineral (lithium in lithium carbonate equivalent); tungsten: 17,865 tonnes in 2026 and 34,268 tonnes in 2036 |
| Segments Covered | By Mineral: Tungsten, Titanium, Nickel, Antimony, Cobalt, Rare Earth Elements, Beryllium, Gallium & Germanium, Tantalum & Niobium, Lithium, Graphite, Other Critical Minerals. By Form: Refined Metals, Oxides, Compounds & Other Forms, Alloys, Powders & Magnet Alloys. By Application: Permanent Magnets & Motors, Superalloys & High-Performance Alloys, Armor & Penetrators, Electronics, Semiconductors & Optics, Batteries & Power Storage, Munitions, Propellants & Energetics, Other Applications. By Defence Platform: Combat Aircraft & Engines, Missiles & Munitions, Naval Vessels & Submarines, Armored & Land Systems, Space, C4ISR & Electronic Warfare. By End User: Defense Prime Contractors & OEMs, Tier Suppliers & Component Manufacturers, Government Stockpiling Agencies. |
| Countries Covered | North America: U.S., Canada. Europe: U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Türkiye, Russia, Rest of Europe. Asia-Pacific: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Rest of Asia-Pacific. Middle East & Africa: Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE, Rest of Middle East & Africa. Latin America: Brazil, Rest of Latin America. |
| Key Companies | MP Materials, Lynas Rare Earths, Neo Performance Materials, China Northern Rare Earth, Plansee, Xiamen Tungsten, Almonty Industries, ATI, Carpenter Technology, VSMPO-AVISMA, Toho Titanium, IperionX, Materion, Umicore, 5N Plus, United States Antimony, Perpetua Resources, Global Advanced Metals, CBMM, and Glencore. |
Report overview
Segments covered: mineral, form, application, defence platform, end user.
The growth of this market is mainly driven by rising defence spending and rearmament programmes, the ramp-up of munitions production, Chinese export controls and the resulting security-of-supply premium, sourcing rules for defence supply chains, and government stockpiling and strategic investment. However, limited processing capacity outside China, price volatility and contracting risk, and the small and fragmented nature of defence demand restrain the growth of this market.
Furthermore, allied and domestic supply chains, recycling and secondary supply, drones, robotics, and electrified systems, and advanced materials and processes are expected to offer growth opportunities for the stakeholders in this market. However, long qualification and certification timelines, transparency and data gaps, and environmental and permitting constraints remain major challenges impacting the growth of this market. Additionally, two-tier pricing for Chinese and non-Chinese material, the growing role of the state as investor and buyer, munitions-led demand, and the shift toward electrified and unmanned systems are prominent trends in this market.
The Defence Critical Minerals Market comprises spending on processed critical minerals used in the manufacture of defence systems and purchased for national defence and strategic stockpiles. The market covers tungsten, titanium, nickel, antimony, cobalt, rare earth elements, beryllium, gallium and germanium, tantalum and niobium, lithium, graphite, and other critical minerals such as magnesium, hafnium, rhenium, zirconium, scandium, and indium, supplied as refined metals, oxides and compounds, or alloys, powders, and magnet alloys. Country markets are measured on a sales basis, as defence manufacturing consumption in the country, including imports, plus national stockpile purchases. Values are provided for all segmentations, and volumes are provided by mineral in tonnes.
Modern weapons depend on minerals that have no easy substitutes. Kinetic energy penetrators need tungsten heavy alloy, jet engine turbines need nickel and cobalt superalloys, missile fin actuators need rare earth magnets that keep their strength at high temperature, active electronically scanned radars need gallium nitride, thermal sights need germanium optics, ammunition primers need antimony, and airframes and submarine hulls need titanium. Defence accounts for about 12% of global tungsten consumption and about 9% of titanium sponge output, but well under 1% of rare earth demand, which gives defence buyers limited purchasing power in supply chains built for commercial users.
Defence demand is rising at the same time as supply has become more restricted. World military expenditure reached USD 2,887 billion in 2025, according to SIPRI, its 11th consecutive annual increase, NATO members agreed in June 2025 to raise defence and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, and munitions production in the U.S. and Europe is being expanded to replace stocks consumed in Ukraine. Governments have responded with stockpiles, equity investments, price floors, and sourcing rules, including the U.S. prohibition on Chinese-origin rare earth magnets, tungsten, and tantalum in defence systems from 1 January 2027.
Tungsten prices are the largest single influence on market value, because tungsten accounts for about half of the market in 2026 after record prices outside China. The forecast assumes that effective prices ease gradually from their 2026 peaks while remaining well above pre-2025 levels, that non-Chinese processing capacity grows slowly because of long build and qualification times, and that stockpile purchases slow after 2026 as targets are filled. The renewal of Chinese export controls after November 2026 and the pace of munitions production are the main sensitivities.
This reflects how sourcing rules are turning traceability and compliant origin into a key purchasing criterion.
This indicates how export controls and munitions demand are raising both prices and buffer stocks.
This highlights the role of government support in converting defence demand into new supply.
Market dynamics
16 factors across 4 forcesRising Defence Spending and Rearmament Programmes
Rising defence spending is the most important factor driving the Defence Critical Minerals Market. World military expenditure rose by 2.9% in real terms to USD 2,887 billion in 2025, according to SIPRI, with spending in Europe up 14% to USD 864 billion and Chinese spending up 7.4% to USD 336 billion. At the Hague summit in June 2025, NATO members agreed to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security by 2035, and the EU ReArm Europe plan aims to unlock up to EUR 800 billion of additional defence spending. Arms revenues of the 100 largest arms producers rose by 5.9% to a record USD 679 billion in 2024, and European industry has announced more than 100 new production lines, which translates spending into material demand.
Munitions Production Ramp-Up
Munitions are the most mineral-intensive part of defence production per unit of spending. Tungsten is used in armour-piercing penetrators, fragmentation liners, and warheads, antimony hardens lead and is used in primers and tracers, magnesium is used in flares, and rare earth magnets are used in the fin actuators and seekers of guided munitions. The war in Ukraine exposed the low production capacity for artillery ammunition in the U.S. and Europe, both have funded large expansions of shell, propellant, and explosive production since 2023, and NATO members are rebuilding stocks of missiles and interceptors.
Export Controls and the Security-of-Supply Premium
Export controls have turned defence minerals into strategic assets with distinct prices inside and outside China. China placed gallium and germanium under licensing in August 2023, graphite in December 2023, and antimony in September 2024, banned exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the U.S. in December 2024, added tungsten to licensing in February 2025, and controlled 12 medium and heavy rare earths in 2025. Exports of APT from China fell by almost 70% in the first 11 months of 2025, and material of non-Chinese origin now trades at a premium that Western governments and contractors are willing to pay.
Sourcing Rules for Defence Supply Chains
U.S. defence procurement rules prohibit, from 1 January 2027, the use of rare earth magnets, tungsten, and tantalum that are mined, refined, separated, or melted in China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea in Department of Defense systems. The rule extends the restriction from finished products to the whole supply chain and has forced contractors to qualify new suppliers and build traceability from mine to component. In Europe, the Critical Raw Materials Act sets a target that no more than 65% of EU consumption of any strategic raw material should come from a single third country by 2030.
Government Stockpiling and Strategic Investment
Governments have become direct buyers and investors. The U.S. National Defense Stockpile has expanded purchases, including an antimony contract of up to USD 245 million with United States Antimony, and the U.S. launched Project Vault, a USD 12 billion strategic minerals stockpile initiative, in 2026. Under the July 2025 agreement with MP Materials, the U.S. Department of War bought USD 400 million of preferred stock, guaranteed a price of USD 110 per kilogram for NdPr for ten years, and committed to buy all output of the new 10X magnet plant, while Japan, South Korea, India, and the EU are expanding their own stockpiles.
Table of contents
13 chapters · 313 sections · 356 pages · click to expandSegmental analysis
| Segment | Largest share (2026) | Fastest growth (2026–2036) |
|---|---|---|
| By Mineral | Tungsten | Lithium |
| By Form | Alloys, Powders & Magnet Alloys | Alloys, Powders & Magnet Alloys |
| By Application | Armor & Penetrators | Batteries & Power Storage |
| By Defence Platform | Missiles & Munitions | Space, C4ISR & Electronic Warfare |
| By End User | Tier Suppliers & Component Manufacturers | Tier Suppliers & Component Manufacturers |
By Mineral
- The Tungsten segment is expected to account for the largest share of 50.3% of the market; in volume, defence demand for tungsten is projected to reach 34,268 tonnes by 2036 from an estimated 17,865 tonnes in 2026, at a CAGR of 6.7%.
- The large share of this segment is mainly due to the use of tungsten heavy alloys in kinetic energy penetrators, fragmentation munitions, and armour, and to the sharp rise in prices outside China after China introduced export licensing for 20 tungsten products in February 2025, when APT rose from a five-year average of about USD 300 per mtu to more than USD 3,000 per mtu in April 2026.
- Defence accounts for about 12% of global tungsten consumption, and the U.S. prohibition on Chinese-origin tungsten in defence systems from January 2027 adds demand for non-Chinese material.
- However, the Lithium segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 12.0% during the forecast period, with volume rising from an estimated 7,056 tonnes in 2026 to 16,576 tonnes in 2036.
- The rapid growth of this segment is driven by thermal batteries for missiles and munitions and lithium-ion batteries for drones, unmanned underwater vehicles, soldier systems, and electrified vehicles, combined with the recovery of lithium prices from their 2025 lows.
- Rare earth elements are the fastest-growing mineral by volume, at 9.7% per year, driven by magnets for drones, robotics, missiles, and electrified systems and supported by new non-Chinese supply from MP Materials and Lynas.
By Form
- The Alloys, Powders & Magnet Alloys segment is expected to account for the largest share of 47.4% of the market.
- The large share of this segment is mainly due to tungsten heavy alloy powders for penetrators, titanium alloy ingot for airframes and engines, and superalloy master alloys, which together account for most of the value of defence materials.
- U.S., U.K., and French buyers purchase a high share of engineered alloys and powders from specialised suppliers such as Plansee, ATI, Carpenter Technology, and Materion, whose products are qualified for defence applications.
- The Alloys, Powders & Magnet Alloys segment is also projected to register the highest CAGR of 5.9% during the forecast period.
- The growth of this segment is driven by the rising share of alloys in titanium, rare earth, and superalloy supply, by the growth of magnet production outside China, such as the magnet plants of MP Materials in Texas and Neo Performance Materials in Estonia, and by additive manufacturing, which uses metal powders and reduces machining scrap.
- Powder-based titanium production, such as the process scaled by IperionX in Virginia, further supports the segment.
By Application
- The Armor & Penetrators segment is expected to account for the largest share of 34.9% of the market.
- The large share of this segment is mainly due to tungsten heavy alloy penetrators for tank and naval ammunition and to armour materials, combined with record tungsten prices outside China.
- Armor and penetrators and munitions, propellants, and energetics together account for more than half of the market in 2026, reflecting the munitions production ramp-up in the U.S. and Europe.
- However, the Batteries & Power Storage segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 9.2% during the forecast period.
- The rapid growth of this segment is driven by lithium batteries for drones, unmanned underwater vehicles, soldier power, and electrified platforms, as defence ministries fund domestic drone production and electrify vehicles and subsystems.
- Permanent magnets and motors is the second fastest-growing application, supported by the same shift toward unmanned and electrified systems and by the 2027 U.S. sourcing rule for magnets.
By Defence Platform
- The Missiles & Munitions segment is expected to account for the largest share of 42.6% of the market.
- The large share of this segment is mainly due to tungsten and antimony in ammunition, rare earth magnets and gallium-based electronics in guided weapons, and magnesium in flares, combined with munitions and interceptor production ramp-ups in the U.S. and Europe.
- Air and missile defence systems have been used at high rates in Ukraine and the Middle East, and NATO members are rebuilding missile and interceptor stocks.
- However, the Space, C4ISR & Electronic Warfare segment is projected to register the highest CAGR of 8.0% during the forecast period.
- The rapid growth of this segment is driven by radar, electronic warfare, satellites, and sensors, which use gallium, germanium, beryllium, and rare earths.
- Gallium nitride radars, germanium infrared optics, and beryllium structures and mirrors are essential to modern surveillance and targeting, and the U.S. and Israel have particularly high shares of space and C4ISR systems in their platform mixes.
By End User
- The Tier Suppliers & Component Manufacturers segment is expected to account for the largest share of 61.9% of the market.
- The large share of this segment is mainly due to the purchases of melters, forging houses, magnet makers, powder metallurgy companies, and electronics suppliers, which buy most titanium, superalloy, magnet, and electronic materials before supplying components to prime contractors.
- Government stockpiling agencies account for 12.3% of the market in 2026 after their purchases more than doubled between 2024 and 2026.
- The Tier Suppliers & Component Manufacturers segment is also projected to register the highest CAGR of 5.9% during the forecast period.
- The growth of this segment is driven by the expansion of component production for aircraft, missiles, and electrified systems and by the need for qualified, traceable materials under the 2027 U.S. sourcing rule, which places compliance responsibility on suppliers at each processing stage.
- Stockpile purchases, by contrast, grow more slowly after 2026 as stockpile targets are filled.
Geographic analysis
North America
Largest shareIn 2026, North America is expected to account for the largest share of 44.6% of the global Defence Critical Minerals Market. The large share of North America is attributed to the U.S., which spent USD 954 billion on defence in 2025, about a third of the world total, and whose companies dominate the SIPRI Top 100 arms producers. U.S. buyers pay prices outside China and premiums for compliant origin, and U.S. stockpile purchases and government investments, including the MP Materials partnership and Project Vault, add further demand. The U.S. is the largest country market in the world, while Canada is the faster-growing market in the region. North America
Europe
Europe is expected to account for a share of 27.3% of the market in 2026. European defence spending rose by 14% to USD 864 billion in 2025, NATO members committed to 5% of GDP by 2035, and European industry is expanding ammunition and missile production. Russia is the largest market in the region and the third-largest country market, while Poland is the fastest-growing market in the region and one of the fastest-growing in the world, at a CAGR of 11.0%, supported by large purchases of tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles and domestic ammunition production. Europe
Asia-Pacific
Asia-Pacific is expected to account for a share of 24.2% of the market in 2026. China is the largest market in the region and the second-largest country market, supported by a large domestic defence industry that consumes Chinese-processed materials at domestic prices, while Japan, South Korea, and India are expanding defence production and exports. India is the fastest-growing market in the region, supported by military spending of USD 92 billion in 2025, and South Korea is becoming an important source of non-Chinese tungsten through the Sangdong mine. Asia-Pacific
Middle East & Africa
The Middle East & Africa is expected to account for a share of 3.2% of the market in 2026. Israel is the largest market in the region, with high demand for materials used in missiles, interceptors, and electronics by Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries, and Rafael, while Saudi Arabia is the fastest-growing country market in the world, at a CAGR of 11.2%, supported by its goal of localizing 50% of military spending by 2030. Middle East & Africa
Latin America
Fastest growthHowever, Latin America is projected to register the highest CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period, from a small base. Brazil is the largest market in the region, with demand from Embraer military aircraft and Avibras rockets and munitions, and Brazil is also an important supplier of niobium through CBMM. Latin America
Competitive landscape
The global Defence Critical Minerals Market is fragmented across minerals and supply chain stages. Each mineral has its own small group of qualified suppliers, Chinese and Russian state-owned groups supply their domestic defence industries, and a growing number of Western and allied producers are entering with government support. Market leadership therefore differs by mineral: in 2025, Materion led beryllium with an estimated share of 67.5%, Precision Castparts led titanium and nickel, Plansee led tungsten with 22.1%, Umicore led gallium and germanium, Global Advanced Metals led tantalum and niobium, China Northern Rare Earth led rare earths, and Glencore led cobalt.
Between January 2024 and September 2026, the key players announced 21 strategic developments with verifiable dates, led by agreements and partnerships, followed by expansions, funding and approvals, and product launches. Major examples include the July 2025 partnership between the U.S. Department of War and MP Materials, the start of active mining at the Sangdong tungsten mine by Almonty Industries in December 2025, the first heavy rare earth production outside China by Lynas in May 2025, the Defense Logistics Agency antimony contract with United States Antimony, and the USD 65 million customer investment announced by Materion in February 2026 to support U.S. defence initiatives.
The report provides a comprehensive competitive assessment of the leading companies operating in the global Defence Critical Minerals Market. The key players profiled in the report include MP Materials Corp. (U.S.), Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. (Australia), Neo Performance Materials Inc. (Canada), China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd. (China), Plansee Group (Austria), Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. (China), Almonty Industries Inc. (Canada), ATI Inc. (U.S.), Carpenter Technology Corporation (U.S.), VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation (Russia), Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. (Japan), IperionX Limited (U.S.), Materion Corporation (U.S.), Umicore SA (Belgium), 5N Plus Inc. (Canada), United States Antimony Corporation (U.S.), Perpetua Resources Corp. (U.S.), Global Advanced Metals (U.S.), CBMM (Brazil), and Glencore plc (Switzerland).
- MP Materials
- Lynas Rare Earths
- Neo Performance Materials
- China Northern Rare Earth
- Plansee
- Xiamen Tungsten
- Almonty Industries
- ATI
- Carpenter Technology
- VSMPO-AVISMA
- Toho Titanium
- IperionX
- Materion
- Umicore
- 5N Plus
- United States Antimony
- Perpetua Resources
- Global Advanced Metals
- CBMM
- Glencore
Expert perspectives
Defence critical minerals have moved from a niche procurement issue to a central question of national security. Chinese export controls on tungsten, antimony, gallium, germanium, graphite, and rare earths, together with record prices outside China, have shown how dependent Western defence production is on a small number of processing chains, and governments are now intervening directly with stockpiles, equity stakes, price floors, and sourcing rules.
Three structural shifts are expected to shape the market through 2036. First, growth shifts from prices to volumes, as prices ease from their 2026 peaks while munitions, missile, and aircraft production expands. Second, non-Chinese supply chains for tungsten, rare earths, antimony, and titanium are built with government support, driven by the 2027 U.S. sourcing rule, although qualification keeps the transition slow. Third, drones, robotics, and electrified systems make rare earths and lithium the fastest-growing minerals in the defence mix.
For companies planning entry or expansion, the most attractive positions over the forecast period are likely to be found in qualified processing outside China, particularly tungsten conversion, heavy rare earth separation, and magnet production, in titanium and superalloy powders for additive manufacturing, in recycling of defence scrap, and in supply contracts backed by government offtakes and price floors. The principal risks are tungsten price movements, the renewal of Chinese export controls after November 2026, the pace of munitions production, and long qualification timelines.
Customer perspectives
Insights gathered during primary interviews with procurement and supply chain executives at defence prime contractors, tier suppliers, and materials producers, and with government stockpiling and industrial policy officials, highlight where priorities are shifting. The following perspectives reflect recurring themes raised across these discussions.
Frequently asked questions
The global Defence Critical Minerals Market is estimated at USD 7,547.4 million in 2026.
Cite this report
Meticulous Research. (2026). Defence Critical Minerals Market - Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast (2026-2036) (Report No. MR-2291). Meticulous Market Research Pvt. Ltd. https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/defence-critical-minerals-market-6974