Automotive Transmission Market Size, Share, Forecast, & Trends Analysis by Type (Manual Transmission, Automated Manual Transmission, and Semi-automated Manual Transmission), Engine Type (Petrol Engine and Diesel Engine), Vehicle Type, Sales Channel - Global Forecast to 2031

Automotive Transmission Market Size & Forecast

The Automotive Transmission Market is expected to reach $146.2 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2031. The growth of the automotive transmission market is driven by increasing advancements in automotive transmission technology and stringent regulatory standards and emission norms. However, the complexity of transmission systems and fluctuations in raw material prices may restrain market growth.

Furthermore, the rising focus on lightweight and highly efficient materials among automakers, coupled with the integration of AI and machine learning with automotive transmission systems, is expected to create market growth opportunities. However, supply chain disruptions pose a significant challenge to the market’s growth.

Automotive Transmission Market Growth Drivers

Increasing Advancements in Automotive Transmission Technology

Advanced transmission technologies, such as continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), and automated manual transmissions (AMTs), offer improved fuel efficiency compared to traditional automatic transmissions. This efficiency gain is a significant selling point for both consumers and automakers, particularly in an era where environmental concerns and fuel economy standards are crucial. New transmission technologies often offer better performance characteristics, including quicker shift times, smoother gear changes, and optimized power delivery. These improvements enhance the driving experience, making vehicles more attractive to consumers, particularly those interested in high-performance vehicles.

Moreover, modern transmissions are increasingly becoming integrated with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and vehicle connectivity features. These integrations can enable functionalities such as adaptive cruise control, automatic emergency braking, and predictive shifting algorithms that optimize gear selection based on real-time driving conditions. Advancements in materials, lubricants, and manufacturing processes contribute to the durability and reliability of modern transmission systems. This is crucial for automakers seeking to minimize warranty claims and improve the long-term ownership experience for consumers. Such advancements in transmission technology are expected to drive the growth of the automotive transmission market during the forecast period.

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Stringent Regulatory Standards and Emission Norms

Regulatory standards and emission norms significantly influence the automotive transmission market's development. Stringent fuel efficiency standards mandated by regulatory bodies worldwide compel automakers to innovate and produce vehicles equipped with more efficient transmission systems. Advanced transmission technologies, including continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), and sophisticated automatic transmissions, contribute to improving fuel economy by optimizing gear ratios and reducing frictional losses. Moreover, as the automotive industry shifts towards electrification and hybridization, transmission systems for electric and hybrid vehicles play a pivotal role in maximizing energy efficiency. Electric vehicles (EVs) typically utilize single-speed transmissions or direct-drive systems. In contrast, hybrid vehicles employ various configurations such as series, parallel, or power-split transmissions to optimize the utilization of internal combustion engines and electric motors.

Additionally, the alignment of regulatory standards across various regions encourages the standardization of transmission technologies, enabling automakers to develop vehicles that comply with multiple regulatory frameworks. This standardization promotes economies of scale in production, ultimately resulting in cost reductions for manufacturers and consumers.

Automotive Transmission Market Opportunity

Rising Focus on Lightweight and Highly Efficient Materials Among Automakers

Lightweight materials, such as aluminum alloys, advanced composites, and high-strength steels, offer the potential to enhance the performance of transmission systems. These materials enable the design of more compact and efficient transmission components, leading to faster acceleration, smoother shifts, and enhanced overall driving dynamics. Moreover, by reducing the weight of transmission components, automakers can achieve a higher power-to-weight ratio, thereby improving the vehicle's performance and responsiveness. This aspect is particularly crucial in high-performance vehicles, where every unit of weight reduced contributes to better acceleration and handling.

Furthermore, lightweight materials offer greater flexibility in designing transmission systems, allowing for innovative and space-efficient packaging solutions. This flexibility enables automakers to optimize vehicle layout and interior space while maintaining or even improving performance and efficiency. Therefore, the increasing focus on lightweight and highly efficient materials among automakers is expected to create significant opportunities for the market’s growth.

Integration of AI and Machine Learning with Automotive Transmission Systems

The integration of AI and machine learning with automotive transmission systems is expected to create significant market growth opportunities. AI and machine learning algorithms can analyze data from transmission sensors to predict potential failures or maintenance needs before they occur. This proactive maintenance approach helps prevent costly downtime and extends the lifespan of transmission components. Additionally, AI algorithms can optimize gear shift patterns based on driving conditions, driver behavior, and real-time vehicle data, thereby improving fuel efficiency, enhancing performance, and delivering a smoother driving experience.

Moreover, AI-powered adaptive transmission control systems can learn from driver preferences and driving habits to dynamically adjust shift points and transmission behavior. This personalization enhances comfort, responsiveness, and overall vehicle performance. AI enables the development of advanced control strategies for transmission systems, including predictive shifting, torque vectoring, and adaptive torque management, optimizing power delivery, traction, and vehicle stability in various driving scenarios.

Automotive Transmission Market Challenges

Supply Chain Disruptions

Supply chain disruptions, such as raw material shortages, factory closures, or transportation delays, can result in shortages of critical components used in transmission manufacturing. These disruptions may lead to delays in vehicle production, particularly for those equipped with advanced transmission systems. Manufacturers may encounter challenges in procuring necessary components or assembling transmissions, resulting in delays in vehicle deliveries to dealerships and customers. Additionally, supply chain disruptions can drive up costs for sourcing materials, components, and logistics.

Moreover, supply chain disruptions create uncertainty in the automotive market, making it challenging for manufacturers to plan production schedules and accurately forecast demand. This uncertainty may hinder investments in new transmission technologies or expansions in production capacity.

Automotive Transmission Market Analysis: Key Findings

By Type: in 2024, the Manual Transmission Segment to Dominate the Automotive Transmission Market

Based on type, the global automotive transmission market is segmented into type manual transmission, automated manual transmission, and semi-automated manual transmission. Furthermore, the automated manual transmission segment is sub-segmented into automatic transmission, continuously variable transmission, and dual-clutch transmission. In 2024, the manual transmission segment is expected to account for the largest share of 48.0% of the global automotive transmission market. This segment's large market share can be attributed to the higher fuel efficiency offered by manual transmissions compared to automatic alternatives. With growing concerns regarding fuel economy and environmental sustainability, some consumers opt for manual transmissions to optimize fuel efficiency and reduce their carbon footprint. This trend is particularly pronounced in regions with high fuel prices or a strong emphasis on environmental consciousness, potentially driving market growth in these areas. Moreover, manual transmissions are generally simpler in design and have fewer components compared to automatic transmissions. This simplicity often translates to lower maintenance and repair costs over the lifespan of the vehicle.

However, the automated manual transmission segment is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The growth of this segment can be attributed to the benefits offered by automated transmissions, which combine the convenience of automatic transmissions with the engagement and control of manual transmissions. Furthermore, various key players are launching various automated manual transmissions, contributing to the market’s growth. For instance, in February 2024, ZF Friedrichshafen AG (Germany) announced the launch of the first PowerLine 8-speed automatic transmissions at its South Carolina manufacturing facility. As part of a USD 200 million investment unveiled in 2021, the company aims to increase production to 200,000 transmissions per year by 2025 to meet demand from US commercial vehicle manufacturers. Additionally, in January 2024, Tata Motors (India) launched the first-ever CNG cars equipped with automatic manual transmission (AMT) technology.

By Engine Type: in 2024, the Petrol Engine Segment to Dominate the Automotive Transmission Market

Based on engine type, the global automotive transmission market is segmented into petrol engines and diesel engines. In 2024, the petrol engines segment is expected to account for the larger share of 56.0% of the global automotive transmission market. This segment's growth can be attributed to the compatibility of different types of automated transmissions, such as automatic transmissions and continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), with petrol engines. Automated transmissions play a crucial role in enhancing the performance of petrol engines by optimizing gear shifts for maximum power delivery and fuel efficiency. Moreover, features like dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs) offer quick gear changes, thereby improving acceleration and overall driving dynamics. These performance benefits are particularly appealing to enthusiasts and drivers who prioritize responsive and engaging driving experiences. These factors drive the demand for petrol engine vehicles equipped with automated transmissions.

Moreover, the petrol engines segment is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

By Vehicle Type: in 2024, the Passenger Cars Segment to Dominate the Automotive Transmission Market

Based on vehicle type, the global automotive transmission market is segmented into passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles. Furthermore, the heavy commercial vehicles segment is sub-segmented into trucks and buses. In 2024, the passenger cars segment is expected to account for the largest share of 47.0% of the global automotive transmission market. The large market share of this segment can be attributed to the ongoing advancements in the automotive industry, which is experiencing rapid technological progress, particularly in transmission systems. Emerging transmission technologies like continuously variable transmissions (CVTs), dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), and automatic transmissions are gaining prominence in passenger cars due to their higher efficiency, performance, and comfort over traditional manual transmissions. Furthermore, passenger cars constitute the largest segment of the automotive market in terms of both production and sales volume. As a result, the demand for transmissions for passenger cars is significantly higher than that of other vehicle segments, such as commercial vehicles or off-road vehicles.

Moreover, the passenger cars segment is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

By Sales Channel: in 2024, the Original Equipment Manufacturers Segment to Dominate the Automotive Transmission Market

Based on sales channel, the global automotive transmission market is segmented into original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket. In 2024, the original equipment manufacturers segment is expected to account for the larger share of 85.0% of the global automotive transmission market. The large market share of this segment can be attributed to increased expansion efforts by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) by targeting emerging markets and diversifying their geographic footprint in the automated transmission market. These efforts involve adapting transmission offerings to align with regional preferences, regulatory environments, and infrastructure conditions. Moreover, OEMs may establish local manufacturing facilities, distribution networks, and marketing strategies to effectively penetrate new markets. Additionally, OEMs frequently collaborate with transmission component suppliers and technology companies to integrate cutting-edge features into their vehicles. Such partnerships enable OEMs to access specialized expertise, reduce development costs, and expedite time-to-market for new transmission technologies.

Moreover, the original equipment manufacturers segment is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

Geographical Analysis

In 2024, Asia-Pacific is expected to account for the largest share of 41.0% of the global automotive transmission market. The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing rapid urbanization and economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and expanding middle-class populations. These factors contribute to increased vehicle ownership and replacement cycles, driving demand for both passenger and commercial vehicles. The growth in the vehicle market is increasing the demand for automotive transmissions.

Furthermore, in Asia-Pacific countries, there is a growing preference for automatic transmissions due to factors such as increasing traffic congestion in urban areas, the convenience of driving in stop-and-go traffic, and a desire for smoother driving experiences. This trend is driving demand for automatic transmission systems in passenger vehicles, particularly in larger cities. Stringent regulations across Asia-Pacific have also incentivized companies to adopt more efficient transmission systems. Additionally, the increasing automotive sales, especially in countries like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are anticipated to positively impact the growth of the automotive transmission market in Asia-Pacific during the forecast period. Additionally, various market players are launching initiatives to drive market development. For instance, in September 2023, Aisin Corporation (Japan) showcased a range of electrification technologies and innovations at the 2023 Detroit Auto Show. These include advanced axles for enhanced energy efficiency, a 1-motor Hybrid Transmission, and a 2-motor Hybrid System for improved performance.

Moreover, the market in Asia-Pacific is projected to register the highest CAGR of 7.0% during the forecast period.

Automotive Transmission Market: Key Companies

The report offers a competitive analysis based on an extensive assessment of the leading players’ product portfolios and geographic presence and the key growth strategies adopted by them over the past 3 to 4 years. Some of the key players operating in the automotive transmission market are ABB Ltd. (Switzerland), Schneider Electric SE (France), Siemens AG (Germany), Rockwell Automation Inc. (U.S.), Allied Motion Technologies, Inc. (U.S.), AMETEK Inc. (U.S.), Johnson Electric Holdings Limited (Hong Kong), Nidec Motor Corporation (Japan), Franklin Electric Co., Inc. (U.S.), Regal Rexnord Corporation (U.S.), Arc Systems Inc. (U.S.), Denso Corporation (Japan), Emerson Electric Co. (U.S.), Nidec Corporation (Japan), and Oriental Motor USA Corp (Germany).

Automotive Transmission Industry Overview: Latest Developments from Key Industry Players

• In June 2023, Yanfeng Auto International Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese automotive parts supplier, collaborated with IBM to leverage Data, AI, and Intelligent Automation Software for accelerating digital and intelligent transformation. Through this collaboration, the company integrates advanced technologies such as AI into the manufacturing of automotive transmission systems.

• In July 2022, BluE Nexus (Japan), Aisin (Japan), and Denso Corporation (Japan) collaborated on a 1-motor hybrid transmission for the new Toyota Crown Crossover RS version. This transmission combines a Direct Shift-6AT, drive motor, and inverter into a single unit, ensuring excellent acceleration and fuel efficiency.

• In March 2022, Tata (India) launched the Altroz, a premium hatchback featuring a dual-clutch automatic transmission.

Automotive Transmission Market Research Summary:

Key questions answered in the automotive transmission market report: