Voluntary Carbon Market (2026-2036)

The growth of this market is mainly driven by corporate net zero and climate neutrality commitments that require companies to address residual emissions, the rise of high-integrity credit labels such as the Core Carbon Principles of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, growing demand for carbon removal credits, the use of credits in the aviation sector's CORSIA scheme, the operationalization of international crediting under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, and new rules in countries such as Japan and Singapore that allow companies to use high-quality credits toward compliance obligations. However, factors such as concerns about the integrity of some credit types, the decline in prices and volumes after criticism of forestry and cookstove credits, uncertainty about how credits can be used under corporate climate standards, and fragmented market infrastructure are expected to restrain the growth of this market to some extent.

The voluntary carbon market is the market in which companies, organizations, governments, and individuals buy carbon credits voluntarily, rather than to meet a legal compliance obligation under an emissions trading system or carbon tax. Each carbon credit represents one tonne of carbon dioxide or equivalent greenhouse gas that has been avoided, reduced, or removed from the atmosphere by a certified project. Credits are issued by independent standards and registries, such as Verra, Gold Standard, the American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Isometric, and Puro.earth, after the project's results have been verified by an accredited third party. When a buyer uses a credit to support a climate claim, the credit is retired in the registry so that it cannot be used again.

This market covers the global value of voluntary carbon credits sold to end buyers, including credits sold through primary sales by project developers, long-term offtake agreements, brokers and retailers, and exchanges, measured at the value of credits delivered or retired. It is segmented by project type, credit category, buyer industry, and geography, with geography based on the location of buyers. Credits used in national compliance schemes, such as the EU emissions trading system, and secondary trading between intermediaries that does not result in sales to end buyers are not included.

Carbon credits are generated by a wide range of projects that differ in method, cost, location, and the type of climate benefit they deliver. Avoidance and reduction projects prevent emissions that would otherwise occur, such as protecting forests from deforestation through REDD+ projects, distributing clean cookstoves to households, capturing methane from landfills and coal mines, and building renewable energy plants in developing countries. Removal projects take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, through nature-based methods such as afforestation, reforestation, and soil carbon, or through technology-based methods such as biochar, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, enhanced weathering, and direct air capture.

The voluntary carbon market grew rapidly in 2021 and 2022, when many companies announced net zero targets and credit prices rose. In 2023 and 2024, the market went through a difficult period, as investigations by journalists and researchers raised concerns that some REDD+ forestry and cookstove credits had overstated their climate impact. According to Ecosystem Marketplace, transaction value fell to USD 535 million in 2024, and many buyers paused purchases or shifted toward higher-quality credits. However, Climate Focus found that retirements remained broadly stable in 2025, at about 173 million credits, which shows that a core group of buyers has continued to use credits as part of their climate strategies.

The market is now going through a period of reform focused on quality and integrity. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market has set the Core Carbon Principles, a global benchmark for high-integrity credits, and is assessing methodologies against them. The Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative has published a Claims Code of Practice that guides how companies can credibly use credits in their climate claims. Rating agencies such as BeZero, Sylvera, and Calyx Global assess the quality of individual projects, and standards bodies have updated older methodologies, including Verra's new consolidated REDD+ methodology. These reforms are expected to rebuild buyer confidence and support higher prices for high-quality credits.

Policy developments are also reshaping the market and creating new sources of demand beyond voluntary corporate buyers. The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism under Article 6.4 has adopted its first standards and is expected to begin issuing credits, and countries are authorizing credits for international transfer under Article 6.2. Airlines must buy eligible credits under the first phase of CORSIA, which runs from 2024 to 2026. Japan's GX emissions trading system and Singapore's carbon tax allow companies to use certain international credits to meet part of their obligations, and Brazil, Colombia, South Africa, and other countries allow credits to be used under their carbon pricing systems. These developments blur the line between voluntary and compliance markets and are expected to bring new demand.

The market includes many types of participants across the value chain, from project origination to final retirement. Project developers and investors such as South Pole, Finite Carbon, Everland, and Respira International develop and finance projects, while retailers and solution providers such as Climate Impact Partners, Carbon Direct, Rubicon Carbon, and Patch help companies build credit portfolios. Exchanges and trading platforms such as Xpansiv and AirCarbon Exchange provide market infrastructure, trading firms such as ACT Group and energy companies such as Shell trade credits, and registries such as Verra and Gold Standard issue and track credits.

Over the forecast period, the voluntary carbon market is expected to recover and grow steadily, driven by demand for high-integrity credits, rapid growth in removal credits, CORSIA and Article 6 demand, and wider use of credits in compliance schemes. Europe is expected to remain the largest buyer region, while Asia-Pacific is expected to grow fastest at a CAGR of 26.9%.

After the criticism of some forestry credits, we reduced our purchases and changed our claims. Now we buy only highly rated or CCP-labeled credits, and we describe them as a contribution to climate action rather than as offsetting.

This explains why buyers across Europe are shifting toward high-quality credits and why Europe remains the largest buyer region despite tighter rules on claims.

CORSIA-eligible credits are scarce and expensive, so we are signing forward agreements to secure supply for the coming years.

This explains why aviation is the fastest-growing buyer industry, why authorized credits command a premium, and why Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region.