Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market (2026-2036)
The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market was valued at USD 3.96 billion in 2025. This market is expected to reach USD 52.8 billion by 2036 from an estimated USD 5.01 billion in 2026, registering a CAGR of 26.5% during the forecast period (2026-2036). In terms of volume, the market is expected to grow from an estimated 2,378 kilotonnes in 2026 to 19,411 kilotonnes by 2036, at a CAGR of 23.4% during the same period.
- Published
- Oct 2026
- Pages
- 240
- Format
- PDF + Excel
- Report ID
- MRAD - 1041605
- Base year
- 2025
- 2025 · BASELINE
- $3.96B
- 2036
- $52.80B
- CAGR 2026–2036
- 26.5%
2025 baseline · 2026–2036 forecast at 26.5% CAGR · hover a bar for the value
Key highlights
The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market is projected to reach USD 52.8 billion by 2036, driven by binding blending mandates, airline decarbonization commitments, government incentive programs, and expanding renewable and synthetic fuel production capacity.
Europe is expected to account for the largest market share in 2026, while Asia-Pacific is projected to register the fastest growth during the forecast period. According to the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), 1.1 million tonnes of SAF were supplied at EU airports in 2025, equal to 2.8% of aviation fuel and above the 2% minimum share required under ReFuelEU Aviation.
By feedstock type, the Bio-based segment is expected to account for almost the entire market in 2026, while the Synthetic segment is projected to register the fastest growth through 2036 and to account for about 20% of market value by 2036.
By production technology, HEFA-SPK is expected to account for the largest market share, whereas Power-to-Liquid is projected to witness the fastest growth during the forecast period.
SAF output remains concentrated among a small number of producers. Neste sold 867 thousand tonnes of SAF in 2025, more than double its 2024 volume of 412 thousand tonnes, while U.S. producers registered approximately 240 million gallons of domestic renewable jet fuel under the Renewable Fuel Standard during the year.
Price tiers are widening between pathways. EASA set the 2025 reference price of aviation biofuels at EUR 1,925 per tonne and estimated the production cost of synthetic aviation fuels at EUR 7,520 per tonne, compared with EUR 640 per tonne for fossil kerosene.
New pathways are reaching commercial operation. LanzaJet announced full operation of its Freedom Pines Fuels alcohol-to-jet facility in the U.S. in November 2025, while INERATEC opened its ERA ONE e-fuel plant in Frankfurt, with a capacity of up to 2,500 tonnes per year, in May 2025.
Report summary
| Particulars | Details |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2026-2036 |
| Base Year | 2025 |
| Estimated Year | 2026 |
| CAGR (Value) | 26.5% |
| Format | PDF, Excel & Cloud Portal · 240 pages |
| CAGR (Volume) | 23.4% |
| Market Size (Value) in 2026 | USD 5.01 Billion |
| Market Size (Value) in 2036 | USD 52.8 Billion |
| Market Size (Volume) in 2026 | 2,378 Kilotonnes |
| Market Size (Volume) in 2036 | 19,411 Kilotonnes |
| Segments Covered | By Feedstock Type: Bio-based (Used Cooking Oil, Animal Fats, Vegetable Oils, Other Waste & Residue Lipids, Agricultural & Forestry Residues, Sugar & Starch-Based Alcohols, Other Biogenic Feedstocks), Synthetic (Power-to-Liquid with Point-Source Carbon Capture, Power-to-Liquid with Direct Air Capture). By Production Technology: HEFA-SPK, Co-processing, Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ-SPK), Fischer-Tropsch (FT-SPK), Power-to-Liquid, Other Technologies. By Blend Ratio: Below 30%, 30% to 50%, Above 50%. By Application: Commercial Aviation (Narrow-Body Aircraft, Wide-Body Aircraft, Regional Aircraft), Cargo Aviation, Business & General Aviation, Military Aviation. By End User: Airlines, Airport Operators, Military & Government, Other End Users. |
| Countries Covered | North America: U.S., Canada. Europe: Germany, France, U.K., Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Nordic Countries, Rest of Europe. Asia-Pacific: China, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, India, Australia, Rest of Asia-Pacific. Latin America: Brazil, Chile, Rest of Latin America. Middle East & Africa: UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Rest of Middle East & Africa. |
| Key Companies | Neste Oyj, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Calumet, Inc., Eni S.p.A., TotalEnergies SE, Repsol, S.A., OMV Aktiengesellschaft, LanzaJet, Inc., Gevo, Inc., Twelve Benefit Corporation, INERATEC GmbH, HIF Global LLC, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd., Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., SK Innovation Co., Ltd., and Indian Oil Corporation Limited. |
Report overview
Segments covered: feedstock type, production technology, blend ratio, application, end user.
The growth of this market is mainly driven by binding SAF blending mandates in the European Union and the U.K., expanding SAF incentive programs in the U.S. and Asia-Pacific, rising decarbonization commitments of airlines and cargo operators, and growing renewable fuel production capacity at converted and greenfield refineries. In addition, the synthetic aviation fuel sub-mandates under ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. SAF Mandate are expected to create a new, high-value market for power-to-liquid e-SAF in the 2030s, further supporting the growth of this market.
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market comprises drop-in aviation fuels produced from renewable or waste-based feedstocks and certified for blending with conventional jet fuel under ASTM D7566 and ASTM D1655. The market includes bio-based SAF, such as hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA-SPK) produced from waste oils, animal fats, and vegetable oils, co-processed jet fuel, alcohol-to-jet (ATJ-SPK) fuel, and Fischer-Tropsch (FT-SPK) fuel produced from biomass residues, and synthetic SAF (e-SAF) produced from renewable hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide through power-to-liquid processes. The market ecosystem extends from feedstock suppliers and renewable power and carbon capture providers to refiners and fuel producers, technology licensors, fuel suppliers and airport fuel distributors, airlines, cargo operators, business aviation operators, and military aviation users.
The market is experiencing rapid growth from a small base as blending mandates convert voluntary airline commitments into binding fuel supplier obligations. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global SAF production reached an estimated 1.9 million tonnes (2.4 billion litres) in 2025, up from 1.0 million tonnes in 2024, and is projected to reach around 2.4 million tonnes in 2026. However, SAF still represented only 0.6% of total jet fuel consumption in 2025. Thus, the market remains supply-constrained relative to long-term mandate trajectories, which support sustained double-digit growth through the forecast period.
Europe has become the anchor of global demand. ReFuelEU Aviation (Regulation (EU) 2023/2405) requires a minimum SAF share of 2% in 2025, rising to 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, 34% in 2040, and 70% in 2050, with minimum shares of synthetic aviation fuels of 1.2% in 2030, 5% in 2035, and 10% in 2040. The U.K. SAF Mandate requires 2% SAF in 2025, rising to 10% in 2030 and 22% in 2040, with a cap on HEFA-derived fuel and a separate power-to-liquid obligation from 2028. Thus, Europe is expected to remain the largest market and to become the main source of demand for e-SAF.
Bio-based SAF accounted for almost all supply in 2025, with used cooking oil representing 80% of the feedstock used for SAF supplied in the EU. E-SAF production remained at pilot and first-of-a-kind scale, with EASA estimating its production cost at EUR 7,520 per tonne. According to the ReFuelEU Aviation Annual Technical Report 2026, around 50 e-SAF projects were awaiting final investment decisions, and only about 0.6 million tonnes of synthetic aviation fuel could be produced by 2030 under the high-credibility project scenario. Thus, e-SAF is expected to grow rapidly in value after 2030, while supply shortfalls against sub-mandates remain a key risk.
In the U.S., market growth is shaped by tax credits and state programs rather than by a federal blending mandate. U.S. producers registered approximately 240 million gallons of domestic renewable jet fuel under the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2025, compared with 39 million gallons in 2024. The clean fuel production credit (Section 45Z) was extended through 2029 in July 2025, while state credits in California, Illinois, Washington, and Minnesota add further value. Thus, the U.S. is expected to remain the second-largest market, although its growth is more sensitive to policy changes.
Asia-Pacific is emerging as both a supply hub and a new demand center. Neste operates one of the largest renewable fuel refineries in Singapore, Chinese producers have begun exporting SAF, and Cosmo Oil began supplying approximately 30,000 kilolitres per year of SAF from its Sakai refinery in Japan from April 2025. On the demand side, Japan targets 10% SAF use by 2030, Singapore will apply a SAF levy from April 2026, India has set indicative blending targets of 1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028 for international flights, and South Korea plans a 1% mandate from 2027. Thus, Asia-Pacific is expected to be the fastest-growing regional market.
Pricing in the market is set largely by regulation. EASA publishes annual reference prices that are used to calculate penalties and compliance costs under ReFuelEU Aviation. In 2025, the reference price of aviation biofuels was EUR 1,925 per tonne, while the production cost of synthetic aviation fuels was estimated at EUR 7,520 per tonne, compared with EUR 640 per tonne for fossil kerosene. Thus, the value of the market is expected to grow faster than its volume as higher-priced synthetic and advanced fuels gain share after 2030.
The supply base is concentrated. Neste sold 867 thousand tonnes of SAF in 2025, about 46% of global volume, while converted refineries operated by Valero (through Diamond Green Diesel), Phillips 66, Calumet, Eni, and TotalEnergies account for much of the remaining output. E-SAF developers such as INERATEC, Twelve, and HIF Global are building first-of-a-kind plants, while LanzaJet and Gevo are scaling alcohol-to-jet production. Thus, competitive positions are expected to shift as feedstock constraints and sub-mandates favor producers with access to advanced and synthetic pathways.
This indicates that long-term offtake agreements and clarity on sub-mandate penalties are conditions for final investment decisions on e-SAF plants.
This points to growing use of book-and-claim certificates by cargo operators and their customers to meet emission-reduction targets outside mandated airports.
Market dynamics
13 factors across 5 forcesBinding SAF Blending Mandates in Europe
Binding blending mandates are the most important factor driving the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market, as they convert SAF from a voluntary purchase into a compliance obligation for fuel suppliers. ReFuelEU Aviation requires fuel suppliers at EU airports to deliver a minimum SAF share of 2% from 2025, 6% from 2030, and 20% from 2035, with penalties of at least twice the price difference between SAF and conventional jet fuel for non-compliance. According to EASA, fuel suppliers delivered 1.1 million tonnes of SAF in 2025, or 2.8% of the 39.3 million tonnes of aviation fuel supplied at EU airports, exceeding the 2% target in the first year of the mandate.
The U.K. SAF Mandate adds a second large mandated market, requiring 2% SAF in 2025, rising to 10% in 2030 and 22% in 2040. Thus, European mandates provide the long-term demand visibility needed for final investment decisions on new bio-based and synthetic SAF capacity.
Airline and Cargo Operator Decarbonization Commitments
Airlines, cargo operators, and corporate travel buyers are increasingly using SAF to meet emission-reduction targets that cannot be met through fleet renewal alone. IATA member airlines have committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with SAF expected to contribute the largest share of the required reductions. Air France-KLM incorporated 244,000 tonnes of SAF in 2025, while DHL Group targets more than 30% SAF blending across its air transport by 2030. These commitments are supported by long-term offtake agreements, book-and-claim certificate schemes, and the CORSIA framework, whose first phase covers 2024 to 2026.
Thus, voluntary demand from airlines and corporate buyers adds to mandated demand, particularly in North America and Asia-Pacific, where blending obligations are still being introduced.
Government Incentives and Expanding Production Capacity
Government incentives are accelerating investment in SAF production capacity, especially through the conversion of petroleum refineries to renewable fuels. In the U.S., the clean fuel production credit (Section 45Z) was extended through 2029, and renewable jet fuel generates Renewable Fuel Standard credits and state-level credits. Diamond Green Diesel, a joint venture of Valero Energy Corporation and Darling Ingredients, has made approximately 50% of the 470 million gallons per year capacity of its Port Arthur facility capable of producing neat SAF, while Calumet expects 120 to 150 million gallons of annual SAF capacity at Montana Renewables following its MaxSAF expansion.
In Europe, Eni started its Gela SAF unit with a capacity of about 400 thousand tonnes per year in January 2025, and TotalEnergies is converting its Grandpuits site with a planned SAF capacity of 230 thousand tonnes per year. Thus, capacity additions are expected to keep supply growing in line with mandate requirements through the late 2020s.
In addition, voluntary demand is supported by corporate customers. Corporate travel buyers and freight customers increasingly purchase SAF certificates to reduce reported Scope 3 emissions, and airlines are offering SAF options to corporate and individual customers. Thus, voluntary purchases are expected to add to mandated demand, particularly where mandates are not yet in force.
Table of contents
14 chapters · 160 sections · 240 pages · click to expandSegmental analysis
| Segment | Largest share (2026) | Fastest growth (2026–2036) |
|---|---|---|
| By Feedstock Type | Used Cooking Oil | Synthetic |
| By Production Technology | HEFA-SPK | Power-to-Liquid |
| By Blend Ratio | Below 30% | Above 50% |
| By Application | Commercial Aviation | Cargo Aviation |
| By End User | Airlines | Airport Operators |
By Feedstock Type
- The Bio-based segment is expected to account for almost the entire global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market.
- The dominance of this segment is mainly due to the commercial maturity of HEFA production from waste lipids, with used cooking oil accounting for 80% of the feedstock used for SAF supplied in the EU in 2025.
- However, the Synthetic segment is projected to register the fastest growth during the forecast period, driven by the synthetic aviation fuel sub-mandates under ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. power-to-liquid obligation.
- The Synthetic segment is expected to account for about 20% of market value by 2036.
- Within the Bio-based segment, Used Cooking Oil is expected to account for the largest share in 2026, followed by Animal Fats and Vegetable Oils, while Agricultural & Forestry Residues are expected to grow the fastest owing to their large availability and eligibility as advanced feedstocks.
- Within the Synthetic segment, Power-to-Liquid with Point-Source Carbon Capture is expected to account for most supply in the early years, as biogenic carbon dioxide from bioethanol and biogas plants is cheaper to capture than carbon dioxide from the air.
- Thus, the feedstock mix is expected to diversify significantly by 2036.
By Production Technology
- HEFA-SPK is expected to account for the largest market share, owing to its commercial maturity and compatibility with converted refinery hydrotreaters.
- However, Power-to-Liquid is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by e-SAF sub-mandates, while Alcohol-to-Jet is expected to be the fastest-growing bio-based technology following the start of commercial production at LanzaJet Freedom Pines.
- The Co-processing segment is expected to account for the second-largest share of the market in 2026.
- Co-processing allows refiners to hydroprocess up to 5% of bio-feedstock with fossil feedstock in existing units under ASTM D1655, with limited capital investment.
- TotalEnergies co-processes at its Normandy platform and started co-processing at Antwerp in 2025, while refiners in South Korea, Japan, and India are qualifying co-processed SAF.
- Thus, co-processing provides a low-cost entry route for refiners, although its volume is limited by blending caps.
- The Fischer-Tropsch (FT-SPK) segment is expected to grow from a very small base.
- Gasification of residues followed by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis produces high-quality SAF with low life-cycle emissions, and the same synthesis step is used in many power-to-liquid projects.
- Thus, this segment is expected to contribute to supply mainly in the 2030s, as advanced and synthetic sub-targets support financing.
By Blend Ratio
- The Below 30% segment is expected to account for the largest market share, as SAF is currently supplied mainly as low-percentage blends at airports to meet mandate shares of 2% to 6%.
- However, the Above 50% segment is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period, supported by rising mandate shares, work on standards for 100% drop-in SAF, and demonstration flights using 100% SAF.
By Application
- Commercial Aviation is expected to account for the largest market share, as passenger airlines consume most jet fuel and are directly covered by blending mandates at EU and U.K. airports.
- However, Cargo Aviation is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by decarbonization commitments of integrators such as DHL Group and growing customer demand for low-emission freight.
- The Business & General Aviation segment is expected to account for a small but growing share of the market, supported by SAF availability at business aviation terminals and the willingness of corporate users to pay a premium for low-emission flights.
- The Military Aviation segment is expected to grow more slowly, as defense agencies test SAF blends for energy security and operational resilience.
- Thus, commercial passenger and cargo operators are expected to account for most demand throughout the forecast period.
By End User
- Airlines are expected to account for the largest market share, as they purchase most SAF either directly from producers or through fuel suppliers.
- However, Airport Operators are projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by airport SAF incentive programs, on-site blending and storage infrastructure, and airport decarbonization targets.
Geographic analysis
Europe
Largest shareIn 2026, Europe is expected to account for the largest share of the global market. The dominance of the region is supported by binding mandates under ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. SAF Mandate, a large refining base with converted renewable fuel units, and the presence of major producers such as Neste, Eni, TotalEnergies, Repsol, and OMV. According to EASA, 1.1 million tonnes of SAF were supplied at EU airports in 2025, equal to 2.8% of the 39.3 million tonnes of aviation fuel supplied. Thus, Europe is expected to account for nearly 60% of global demand in 2026. Within Europe, the Netherlands, Finland, France, Italy, and Spain are the main production hubs. Neste produces SAF at Rotterdam and Porvoo, and its global SAF production capability of 1.5 million tonnes per year is planned to rise to 2.2 million tonnes per year with the Rotterdam expansion. Eni started its Gela SAF unit in January 2025, Repsol produces advanced biofuels including SAF at its Cartagena plant, and TotalEnergies is converting Grandpuits while co-processing at its Normandy platform. Germany, France, and the U.K. are the largest consuming countries due to their large aviation fuel demand. Thus, Western Europe combines the largest demand base with most of the regional supply. The U.K. is a distinct market within Europe. Its SAF Mandate requires 2% SAF in 2025, rising to 10% in 2030 and 22% in 2040, caps the HEFA share of supply, and introduces a separate power-to-liquid obligation from 2028. In addition, the government has proposed a revenue certainty mechanism to support domestic SAF plants. Thus, the U.K. is expected to remain one of the largest national markets and a key market for advanced and synthetic SAF.
North America
North America is expected to account for the second-largest share of the market. U.S. producers registered approximately 240 million gallons of domestic renewable jet fuel under the Renewable Fuel Standard in 2025, compared with 39 million gallons in 2024. Major producers include Valero Energy Corporation (through Diamond Green Diesel at Port Arthur), Phillips 66 (Rodeo Renewed in California), and Calumet (through Montana Renewables), while LanzaJet operates the first commercial alcohol-to-jet plant in Georgia. Gevo, Twelve, and other developers are building alcohol-to-jet and e-SAF capacity. U.S. demand is supported by the Section 45Z clean fuel production credit, extended through 2029, and by state credits in California, Illinois, Washington, and Minnesota, while the SAF Grand Challenge targets 3 billion gallons of domestic SAF production by 2030. In Canada, the Clean Fuel Regulations and a national target of 10% SAF use by 2035 support early demand. Thus, North America remains a large production hub, with part of its output exported to Europe, although the absence of a federal mandate makes its growth more sensitive to policy changes.
Asia-Pacific
Fastest growthHowever, Asia-Pacific is projected to register the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Japan targets 10% SAF use by 2030, and Cosmo Oil began supplying approximately 30,000 kilolitres per year of SAF from its Sakai refinery in April 2025. Singapore will apply a SAF levy from April 2026 to support a 1% target in 2026, rising to 3% to 5% by 2030, and is home to one of the largest renewable fuel refineries of Neste. Thus, Japan and Singapore are expected to lead regional demand in the early years of the forecast period. China, South Korea, and India are expected to drive regional growth in the later years. Chinese producers such as Zhejiang Jiaao have built export-oriented HEFA capacity, and SAF pilot programs have been launched at several Chinese airports. South Korea plans a 1% SAF mandate from 2027, and its refiners are already exporting co-processed SAF. India has set indicative targets of 1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028 for international flights, and Indian Oil Corporation has obtained certification for SAF co-processing. Thus, Asia-Pacific is expected to become a major source of both supply and demand by 2036, supported by large volumes of used cooking oil and agricultural residues.
Latin America
Latin America is expected to account for a smaller but steadily growing share of the market. Brazil requires airlines to reduce emissions through SAF use from 2027 under its Fuel of the Future law, starting at 1% and rising to 10% by 2037, and has large sugarcane ethanol and vegetable oil resources suitable for alcohol-to-jet and HEFA production. In addition, HIF Global is developing e-fuel projects in Chile and Uruguay that could supply synthetic aviation fuel for export. Thus, Brazil is expected to lead regional growth.
Middle East & Africa
The Middle East & Africa region is at an early stage, with demand concentrated in the UAE, where the national SAF roadmap targets domestic production and airlines have announced SAF supply agreements. In South Africa, e-SAF projects are being developed to use low-cost solar and wind power for export markets. Thus, the region is expected to account for a small share of the market through the forecast period, with long-term potential as an export hub.
Competitive landscape
The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market is highly consolidated, with a small number of renewable fuel producers accounting for most of global output. Neste alone sold 867 thousand tonnes of SAF in 2025, about 46% of global volume. Market participants include integrated oil and gas companies with converted refineries, independent renewable fuel producers, refiners using co-processing, and technology developers commercializing alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquid pathways. Companies compete primarily on feedstock access, production capacity, carbon intensity, certification, and long-term offtake agreements with airlines and fuel suppliers.
Leading companies are investing in refinery conversions, SAF-optimized hydrotreating units, pre-treatment facilities for waste feedstocks, and advanced and synthetic pathways. Strategic partnerships with airlines, airports, and fuel distributors, long-term offtake agreements, feedstock supply agreements, and joint ventures remain the key strategies adopted by major players.
The report provides a comprehensive competitive assessment of the leading companies operating in the global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market. The key players profiled in the report include Neste Oyj (Finland), Valero Energy Corporation (U.S.), Phillips 66 (U.S.), Calumet, Inc. (U.S.), Eni S.p.A. (Italy), TotalEnergies SE (France), Repsol, S.A. (Spain), OMV Aktiengesellschaft (Austria), LanzaJet, Inc. (U.S.), Gevo, Inc. (U.S.), Twelve Benefit Corporation (U.S.), INERATEC GmbH (Germany), HIF Global LLC (U.S.), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) (China), Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd. (China), Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. (Japan), SK Innovation Co., Ltd. (South Korea), and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (India).
- Neste Oyj
- Valero Energy Corporation
- Phillips 66
- Calumet, Inc.
- Eni S.p.A
- TotalEnergies SE
- Repsol, S.A.
- OMV Aktiengesellschaft
- LanzaJet, Inc.
- Gevo, Inc.
- Twelve Benefit Corporation
- INERATEC GmbH
- HIF Global LLC
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation · Sinopec
- Zhejiang Jiaao Enprotech Stock Co., Ltd.
- Cosmo Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.
- SK Innovation Co., Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
Expert perspectives
The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market is entering a phase in which demand is set by regulation rather than by voluntary commitments. With ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. SAF Mandate in force, European demand through 2036 is largely fixed by law, and the main uncertainty has shifted to supply. Feedstock availability, the pace of refinery conversions, and the financing of e-SAF and advanced biofuel plants now determine which producers capture this demand.
Three structural changes are expected to shape competitive positions through 2036. First, the limited pool of waste lipids is expected to cap the growth of HEFA, shifting new investment toward alcohol-to-jet, gasification, and power-to-liquid pathways. Second, e-SAF sub-mandates are expected to create a separate high-value tier, accounting for about 20% of market value by 2036. Third, Asia-Pacific is expected to become both a large supplier of HEFA-based SAF and a new demand center as mandates take effect.
For companies planning entry or expansion, the most defensible positions are likely to be found in secured feedstock supply, flexible renewable fuel units, alcohol-to-jet capacity linked to low-cost ethanol, e-SAF projects with access to low-cost renewable power and biogenic carbon dioxide, and long-term offtake agreements with airlines.
The base-year market size of USD 3.96 billion reflects the actual first-sale value of SAF, valued at regulatory reference prices rather than fossil jet fuel prices. Synthetic fuels accounted for less than 0.1% of volume in 2025, but are expected to account for about 20% of market value by 2036 as sub-mandates take effect. The pace at which e-SAF projects reach final investment decisions is therefore the most important variable for the upper end of the forecast range.
Customer perspectives
Insights gathered during primary interviews with airline fuel buyers, fuel suppliers, and producers operating in this market highlight where procurement priorities are shifting. The following perspectives reflect recurring themes raised across these discussions.
“This reflects a broader shift in which airlines in mandated markets focus on the cost of compliance fees charged by fuel suppliers and seek direct offtake agreements with producers.”
Frequently asked questions
The global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market is estimated at USD 5.01 billion in 2026, corresponding to about 2,378 kilotonnes. Europe is expected to account for nearly 60% of this demand, supported by ReFuelEU Aviation and the U.K. SAF Mandate, followed by North America, where U.S. production is supported by federal and state credits.
Cite this report
Meticulous Research. (2026). Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market - Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast (2026-2036) (Report No. MRAD - 1041605). Meticulous Market Research Pvt. Ltd. https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/sustainable-aviation-fuel-market-6288