Used cooking oil for sustainable aviation fuel Market Outlook 2026–2036: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines used cooking oil, animal fats and other waste lipid feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel, together with the residues and crops that could replace them. It tests whether feedstock supply keeps pace with blending mandates, and which feedstocks and pathways take the extra volume to 2036.

Supply is growing from a small base. About 1 million tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel were produced in 2024, about 1.9 million tonnes in 2025, and about 2.4 million tonnes, or 0.8 percent of jet fuel use, are expected in 2026, while hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids make most of the fuel and are limited by feedstock availability. The conclusion is that the lipid pool, not refinery capacity, is the first limit on growth.

Dependence on one feedstock is high. Used cooking oil supplied 81 percent of the sustainable aviation fuel made in the European Union in 2024, 69 percent of the supply came from outside the Union and fewer than ten suppliers accounted for 80 percent of it. The conclusion is that the supply chain is narrow, and a disruption at one supplier or one trade route reaches the whole market.

Demand rules are rising in steps. ReFuelEU Aviation requires 2 percent from 2025, rising to 6 percent in 2030, 20 percent in 2035 and 70 percent in 2050, the United Kingdom requires 10 percent by 2030, and the feedstock share of the cost of fuel reaches about 70 percent in a United States benchmark. The conclusion is that feedstock price sets the cost of compliance, and the supply of lipids sets the pace.

The brief treats feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel as an accelerating signal with a ten year horizon to 2036. It identifies which feedstocks, regions and companies gain as lipid supply tightens and what each means for refiners and airlines. It is a focused 106-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids convert fats, oils and greases into jet fuel in a refinery, and the pathway is the most mature and the cheapest. Feedstocks are used cooking oil, animal fat and virgin crop oils, and the fuel has lifecycle emissions around 80 percent lower than conventional jet fuel.

Feedstock accounts for about 70 percent of the minimum jet selling price in a United States benchmark at a collection radius of 100 miles, and a cut of USD 0.20 a kilogram in feedstock price lowers the selling price by about USD 0.77 a gallon of gasoline equivalent. The conclusion is that the economics of every hydroprocessed plant rest on the price and the distance of its feedstock, and the benchmark should not be transferred directly to other regions.

Renewable diesel uses the same chemistry and draws on the same pool of used cooking oil and animal fat, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory warns that feedstocks targeted for aviation fuel can be diverted to renewable diesel and chemicals at higher product yields. The conclusion is that aviation competes for lipids with a larger fuel market.

Alcohol-to-jet, gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and power-to-liquid use sugars, solid biomass, waste gases or renewable power, and they widen the feedstock base. IATA counts 11 pathways certified under ASTM standards, and a Global Feedstock Assessment of September 2025 puts the potential at about 400 million tonnes of fuel in 2050.

The limits are lipid supply, import dependence, feedstock fraud and delays at new refineries. The period turns on whether non-lipid pathways reach commercial scale before the lipid pool is exhausted.

The used cooking oil for sustainable aviation fuel market, covering used cooking oil, animal fats and other waste lipid feedstocks supplied to hydroprocessed sustainable aviation fuel production, including collection, aggregation, certification and trade, and excluding virgin vegetable oils, feedstocks for renewable diesel, non-lipid feedstocks, and the fuel produced, is valued at USD 2.0–3.0 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 9.61–14.42 billion by 2036, at a CAGR of 17%.

The 2026 base rests on used cooking oil, animal fats and other waste lipids supplied to hydroprocessed fuel plants, mainly in Europe, the United States and Asia. Growth then follows blending mandates, the opening of new refineries and the shift from lipids toward residues and other feedstocks.

The forecast is sensitive to feedstock prices, import rules, refinery delays and the pace of non-lipid pathways. Regionally, Europe holds the largest base, followed by North America and Asia Pacific.

The base case assumes mandates rise as scheduled and lipid supply grows slowly, bringing the inflection to about 2029. An accelerated case assumes faster refinery start-ups and early success of non-lipid pathways, bringing the inflection to 2028 and lifting the 2036 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes refinery delays and lower mandates, moving the inflection to 2032 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Blending mandates in Europe, the United Kingdom and Asia.
• Airline decarbonisation commitments.
• Lifecycle emissions about 80 percent lower.
• Refinery capacity under construction.

Enablers

• Government loan guarantees and incentives.
• Certification schemes.
• Book and claim registries.
• Matchmaking between airlines and producers.

Restraints and barriers

• Limited waste lipid supply.
• Dependence on imports.
• Feedstock fraud and traceability.
• Delays at new refineries.

The direction of feedstock demand for sustainable aviation fuel is set by blending mandates, limits on lipid supply, feedstock prices and incentives, alternative pathways and airline offtake commitments.

The key participants in feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel include Neste Oyj, Calumet, Inc., Indian Oil Corporation Limited, LanzaJet, Inc., Darling Ingredients Inc., Valero Energy Corporation, Eni S.p.A., TotalEnergies SE, Shell plc, BP p.l.c., Phillips 66, Chevron Corporation, Repsol, S.A., Cargill, Incorporated, Wilmar International Limited, Bunge Global SA, Louis Dreyfus Company B.V., Gevo, Inc., Aemetis, Inc., Verbio SE, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Preem AB, China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Air France-KLM S.A., International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A., United Airlines Holdings, Inc., Delta Air Lines, Inc., International Air Transport Association, International Civil Aviation Organization, Boeing, ICF, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ASTM International, United States Department of Energy, European Commission, United Kingdom Department for Transport, Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore, Government of India and Civil Aviation Administration of China.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as lipid supply tightens.

Neste leads among hydroprocessed fuel producers with about 2.2 million tonnes a year of sustainable aviation fuel capability, Darling Ingredients, Cargill and Wilmar lead among lipid collectors and traders, and LanzaJet and Gevo lead among developers of alternative pathways. Competitive intensity is high for used cooking oil and moderate for other feedstocks.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with used cooking oil and animal fat suppliers and the producers that hold their contracts. By 2031 it moves toward a wider base of residues and alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquid supply. By 2036 it settles with producers of residue-based and non-lipid fuel and the suppliers that certify them. Margins hold for producers with secured feedstock and narrow for those buying on the spot market.

The signals converge on rising demand against a limited lipid pool. Output doubling in 2025, mandates in several regions and new refineries support growth, while used cooking oil supply, import dependence and refinery delays hold back volume.

Structural limits show where progress could slow: lipid availability, competition with renewable diesel, fraud and the pace of non-lipid pathways. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: used cooking oil prices, imports into Europe and the United States, refinery start-ups and volumes of fuel from residues.

Used cooking oil and animal fat first, then residues and alcohol-to-jet, then power-to-liquid is the expected order of supply.