Solid-state cooling Market Outlook 2026–2038: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief
What This Brief Covers
This Meticulous Next™ brief examines solid-state cooling, which uses solid materials that heat up and cool down when stretched, magnetised, pressurised or electrically charged, in place of the gas compression used in refrigerators and air conditioners today. It tests how fast elastocaloric, magnetocaloric, barocaloric and electrocaloric systems move from laboratory prototypes to appliances, cold chain equipment and building cooling, and which participants capture value among material suppliers, system developers and appliance makers.
The first signal is working cooling hardware. A University of Maryland team led by Ichiro Takeuchi reported in Science in May 2023 an elastocaloric system built from nickel titanium tubes that delivered 260 W of cooling power and a temperature span of 22.5 K, with water as the heat exchange fluid. The team has designed a compact wine cooler and expects a prototype, and estimated that more efficient actuators could improve overall efficiency by a factor of six. The conclusion is that a refrigerant free cooler of appliance scale has been shown, and the next steps are higher temperature span, lower actuation force and a sealed product.
The second signal is public funding and a path to transfer. Saarland University showed a nickel titanium wire cooling prototype at Hannover Messe in April 2024 that reached a temperature difference of about 20 °C and a cooling chamber of about 10 to 12 °C, with efficiency reported at more than ten times that of current air conditioners and refrigerators. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research is investing more than EUR 17 million in the DEPART!Saar project, and target uses are industrial cooling, electric vehicle cooling and household appliances. The conclusion is that public programmes are paying for the step from laboratory to product, and efficiency claims still need confirmation at system level.
The third signal is the spread of caloric routes. In January 2026 a Chinese Academy of Sciences team led by Professor Li Bing reported dissolution barocaloric cooling with a 30 K drop in 20 seconds, and in May 2026 Barocal, a Cambridge University spin-out, closed a USD 10 million seed round for data centre and commercial refrigeration prototypes expected in 2027 to 2028. The conclusion is that several caloric routes compete, and no route has yet shown the 40 K span and the cooling power that appliances and building cooling need.
The brief treats solid-state cooling as an emerging category with a twelve year horizon to 2038. It identifies which applications, regions and operators scale first and what each means for material suppliers, system developers, appliance makers and cold chain operators.
It is a focused 104-page decision brief for appliance and HVAC makers, cold chain operators, material suppliers and investors. It presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model. Its purpose is to identify which applications scale first, who captures value, and which indicators to track.
| Parameter | Details |
|---|---|
| Forward horizon | 2026–2038 (12 years) |
| Emerging force | Solid-state cooling: elastocaloric and magnetocaloric systems avoiding high-GWP refrigerants |
| Technology readiness | Laboratory and bench prototypes with cooling power in the hundreds of watts; niche magnetocaloric appliance units; no full system proven at building scale |
| Indicative market size & forecast | The solid-state cooling market, covering elastocaloric, magnetocaloric, barocaloric and electrocaloric cooling systems for refrigeration and air conditioning, excluding thermoelectric cooling modules, is valued at USD 0.1–0.2 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.09–2.17 billion by 2038, at a CAGR of 22% |
| Mainstream inflection | ~2033, when sealed systems with enough temperature span and cooling power are standard options in appliances and commercial refrigeration |
| Signal strength | Working prototypes with 260 W of cooling, public funding in Europe and the United States, and new venture funding in 2026 |
| Primary beneficiaries | Developers with proven prototypes; appliance makers with working product lines; suppliers of fatigue resistant alloys and magnets |
| Brief length / format | 104 pages · PDF + executive summary deck · instant delivery |
Understanding the Technology
The working material is the first layer. Nickel titanium shape memory alloys, magnetic alloys, pressure sensitive solids and electrically active ceramics change temperature when stretched, magnetised, pressurised or charged.
The regenerator and actuator form the second layer. The material is cycled by a mechanical actuator, a magnet assembly, a pump or a voltage source, and moves heat through a fluid or a solid contact.
The system is the third layer. Cooling stages are combined with heat exchangers, controls and a sealed housing to make a refrigerator, a wine cooler, a cold chain unit or an air conditioner.
The use is the fourth layer. Appliances, commercial refrigeration, cold chain, vehicle cooling and data centres use the cooling under refrigerant phase-down and energy rules.
The limits are temperature span, cooling power, fatigue life of the working material and cost per kilowatt. The decade turns on whether these systems reach the span and power of vapour compression at a competitive cost.
Market Outlook
The solid-state cooling market, covering elastocaloric, magnetocaloric, barocaloric and electrocaloric cooling systems for refrigeration and air conditioning, excluding thermoelectric cooling modules, is valued at USD 0.1–0.2 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.09–2.17 billion by 2038, at a CAGR of 22%.
The 2026 base rests on niche magnetocaloric appliance units, bench scale elastocaloric and barocaloric systems, and funded demonstration projects. From that base, growth follows refrigerant phase-down rules, appliance maker programmes and new working materials.
The forecast is sensitive to temperature span, fatigue life of nickel titanium and other alloys, and the cost of magnets and alloys. Regionally, Europe leads on refrigerant rules and funded programmes, North America on research and venture funding, and Asia-Pacific on appliance production and materials research.
Scenarios
The base case assumes temperature span and fatigue life improve steadily, giving the inflection in 2033. An accelerated case assumes a step change in alloy fatigue life and tighter refrigerant rules, bringing the inflection to 2031 and lifting the 2038 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes span and cooling power stall and cost stays above vapour compression, holding growth at the bottom of the range.
Factors Behind Growth
Growth drivers
- Phase-down of high-GWP refrigerants.
- Energy efficiency and cooling demand.
- Cold chain and commercial refrigeration.
- Data centre and electronics cooling.
Enablers
- Pilot projects with appliance makers.
- Material maker and appliance maker partnerships.
- Public research funding.
- Compact regenerator designs.
Restraints and barriers
- Limited temperature span and cooling power.
- Concentrated supply of alloys and magnets.
- Fatigue life of working materials.
- High cost compared with vapour compression.
The Forces at Play
Five converging forces will determine how solid-state cooling evolves.
Adoption Outlook
How the shift is likely to unfold across three time horizons.
Bench systems move to sealed prototypes and field trials.
Sealed systems with sufficient span and power reach standard appliance and commercial lines.
Solid-state cooling broadens into building cooling and vehicles.
Latest Strategic Developments
| Date | Development | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2023 | University of Maryland team led by Ichiro Takeuchi reports in Science an elastocaloric system with 260 W of cooling power and a 22.5 K temperature span | Research | Appliance scale refrigerant free cooling shown with nickel titanium tubes |
| Apr 2024 | Saarland University shows a nickel titanium wire cooling prototype at Hannover Messe under the DEPART!Saar project, with funding of more than EUR 17 million | Demonstration | Public programme funds transfer to industrial cooling, vehicle cooling and appliances |
| Jan 2026 | Chinese Academy of Sciences team led by Li Bing reports dissolution barocaloric cooling with a 30 K temperature drop in 20 seconds | Research | New barocaloric route reaches the span needed for appliances in the laboratory |
| May 2026 | Barocal, a Cambridge University spin-out, closes a USD 10 million seed round for data centre and commercial refrigeration prototypes | Funding | Venture funding for caloric cooling begins to scale |
Key Players & Competitive Landscape
The key participants in solid-state cooling include Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd., Astronautics Corporation of America, BASF SE, Exergyn Limited, Barocal, Camfridge Ltd, Cooltech Applications SAS, VACUUMSCHMELZE GmbH & Co. KG, Daikin Industries, Ltd., Carrier Global Corporation, Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., LG Electronics Inc., Whirlpool Corporation, Midea Group Co., Ltd., Robert Bosch GmbH, Danfoss A/S, Emerson Electric Co., Neo Performance Materials Inc., Honeywell International Inc., The Chemours Company, Arkema S.A., Americold Realty Trust, Inc., Lineage, Inc., Fort Wayne Metals Research Products LLC, SAES Getters S.p.A., Phononic, Ferrotec Holdings Corporation, Gentherm Incorporated, University of Maryland, Saarland University, University of Cambridge, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung e.V., Technical University of Denmark, U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, United Nations Environment Programme Ozone Secretariat, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, ASHRAE, International Organization for Standardization, International Electrotechnical Commission and Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.
The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as solid-state cooling matures.
The competitive landscape is forming around six archetypes. Caloric cooling developers. Appliance and HVAC makers. Material suppliers and cold chain users. Research universities and institutes. Government agencies and regulators. Standards bodies. Competitive intensity is low in 2026 because few developers have working systems and no product has reached volume, and it rises as appliance makers convert prototypes to products.
| Archetype | Representative players | Position in 2026 | Outlook to 2038 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caloric cooling developers | Astronautics, Exergyn, Barocal, Camfridge, Cooltech Applications | Magnetocaloric, elastocaloric and barocaloric systems | Develop and prototype caloric cooling systems |
| Appliance and HVAC makers | Haier, Daikin, Carrier, Trane, Johnson Controls, Samsung, LG, Whirlpool, Midea, Robert Bosch, Danfoss, Emerson | Refrigerators, air conditioners and commercial refrigeration | Integrate and sell cooling products |
| Material suppliers and cold chain users | BASF, VACUUMSCHMELZE, Neo Performance Materials, Fort Wayne Metals, SAES Getters, Honeywell, Chemours, Arkema, Phononic, Ferrotec, Gentherm, Americold, Lineage | Alloys, magnets, refrigerants and cold storage | Supply working materials and host refrigeration systems |
| Research universities and institutes | University of Maryland, Saarland University, University of Cambridge, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Technical University of Denmark | Caloric materials and systems research | Develop and license materials and designs |
| Government agencies and regulators | U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, United Nations Environment Programme Ozone Secretariat, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | Research funding and refrigerant rules | Fund research and set refrigerant rules |
| Standards bodies | ASHRAE, International Organization for Standardization, International Electrotechnical Commission, Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute | Test and safety standards | Set test, rating and safety standards |
Where value migrates.
In 2026 value sits with research groups, early developers and the suppliers of working materials. By 2033 it moves toward appliance makers with working product lines and developers with proven prototypes, because buyers pay for lower refrigerant risk and measured energy savings. By 2038 it settles in integrated cooling platforms and suppliers of fatigue resistant alloys and magnets. Margins hold for systems that meet the span and power of vapour compression and narrow in commodity components.
Who Will Win — and Why
The archetypes best positioned to capture value as the shift matures.
Firms that turn bench systems into sealed, repeatable products.
Firms that meet refrigerant rules without losing efficiency.
Firms that keep costs stable as volume grows.
Regulatory Landscape
| Jurisdiction | Milestone | Indicative timing | Effect on adoption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol | International agreement to phase down HFC refrigerants, with developed countries targeting an 85% reduction by 2036 | In force | Drives demand for refrigerant free cooling |
| EU F-gas Regulation | EU rules that cap and phase down fluorinated gases in cooling equipment | In force | Pushes appliance makers toward low-GWP and refrigerant free options |
| US AIM Act and EPA Technology Transitions rule | US framework that phases down HFCs and sets limits by equipment type | In force | Shapes refrigerant choice and equipment design |
| Refrigerant safety and flammability standards | Standards that limit charge size for flammable refrigerants such as propane | In force | Raise the value of refrigerant free systems |
| EU proposal to restrict PFAS | Proposed EU restriction on a broad group of fluorinated substances | Proposed | Could narrow refrigerant options |
Investment Signals
The signals converge on working prototypes and a spread of caloric routes. An elastocaloric system with 260 W of cooling was reported in 2023, a nickel titanium wire prototype was shown in 2024, a barocaloric route with a 30 K drop was reported in January 2026, and a venture round closed in May 2026. Each signal supports growth, and sealed systems with the span and power of vapour compression are still to be shown.
Structural limits show where progress could slow: limited temperature span, fatigue life of nickel titanium, cost of alloys and magnets, and the need for a low cost actuator. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: temperature span and cooling power of prototypes, fatigue life in cycles, appliance maker programme decisions and system price per kilowatt.
Regionally, Europe leads on refrigerant rules and funded programmes, North America on research and venture funding, and Asia-Pacific on appliance production and materials research. Niche appliances, then commercial refrigeration and cold chain, then building cooling are the expected order of development.
Questions This Brief Answers
Strategic Implications
- Caloric cooling developers: raise temperature span and fatigue life, and secure alloy and magnet supply.
- Appliance and HVAC makers: run joint prototypes and set cost per kilowatt targets.
- Material suppliers, cold chain users and research groups: qualify fatigue resistant alloys and pilot units in cold chain sites.
- Policy makers: link refrigerant phase-down to funding for refrigerant free cooling and set test methods for caloric systems.
- Investors: treat temperature span, fatigue life, appliance maker programme decisions and system price per kilowatt as the leading indicators.
"Solid-state cooling has shown that a refrigerator can work without refrigerant gas. The next decade will show whether it can match the span, power and cost of the compressor."
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