Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces Market Outlook 2026–2036: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines reconfigurable intelligent surfaces, thin panels that change how radio waves reflect or pass through them so that operators can shape coverage instead of adding more base stations. It tests whether the surfaces move from trials to a standard part of 5G-Advanced and 6G networks by 2036, and what that means for equipment makers, materials and component suppliers, operators and standards bodies.

Standards work has produced its first guidance. The ETSI Industry Specification Group on reconfigurable intelligent surfaces published its first group report on use cases, covering eleven use cases that include capacity, coverage, positioning, security and sustainability, and a report on implementation and practical considerations was completed on 19 March 2025. It identifies use cases, key performance indicators, deployment scenarios and operating requirements for link performance, spectrum, co-existence and security. The conclusion is that the industry now has a shared vocabulary and a list of requirements, which equipment makers need before they commit to products.

Field results show where the surfaces pay. A test by Oulu University and Luleå University of Technology of a 28 GHz standalone 5G network in an operating mine in northern Sweden found that coverage around a tunnel corner reached at least 22 metres with a surface, against about four metres without one, and a theoretical prediction matched measured values within an average of 1 decibel. The conclusion is that surfaces suit places where line of sight is blocked and a new base station is too costly, such as tunnels, indoor corridors and street corners at millimetre wave frequencies.

Control and interfaces are still early. Reports on the 3GPP 6G workshop in 2026 note that reconfigurable intelligent surfaces featured in several submissions, but that standardisation of the interface and control is at an early stage, and that Release 21 is the first 6G specification. The conclusion is that products can be sold as fixed or slowly adjusted panels first, and the case for fully programmable radio environments rests on standards that are not yet written.

The brief treats reconfigurable intelligent surfaces as an emerging signal with a ten year horizon to 2036. It identifies which equipment makers, materials suppliers and operators capture value as standards and field results develop. It is a focused 104-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

A reconfigurable intelligent surface is a panel made of many small elements whose reflection or transmission of radio waves can be adjusted. A passive or low power panel redirects a signal around an obstacle without the cost and power use of a base station. The conclusion is that the surface is a coverage tool for frequencies where signals are blocked easily, and its value rises as networks use higher frequency bands.

Control is the difference between a reflector and a surface. A fixed reflector sends a signal in one direction, while a controllable surface changes direction as users move, which requires a control link to the network. Group reports of ETSI identify operating requirements for link performance, spectrum, co-existence and security, and 3GPP interface standardisation is early. The conclusion is that standard control interfaces decide whether surfaces from different makers can work in one network.

Positioning and sensing broaden the use. The ETSI use case report lists positioning, further sensing, wireless power transfer and ambient backscattering alongside coverage and capacity, and the chair of the group has pointed to health uses such as detecting a fall. The conclusion is that coverage is the first business case, and sensing is a later source of revenue that depends on 6G design.

Alternatives compete. Operators can add small cells, active repeaters or network-controlled repeaters, which are already standardised. The conclusion is that surfaces must beat these options on installed cost, power and ease of planning, and the evidence from mine and street trials is still limited.

The limits are the lack of control standards, proof of gain in live networks, planning tools, installation cost and competition from repeaters and small cells. The brief tests each limit against the evidence to 2036.

The reconfigurable intelligent surfaces market, covering reflective and transmissive surface panels, their control and management software, and planning and integration services for wireless networks, and excluding conventional passive reflectors, active repeaters, network-controlled repeaters and base station antennas, is valued at USD 0.03–0.06 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 0.87–1.74 billion by 2036, at a CAGR of 40%.

The 2026 base rests on trial panels, research systems, field test services and early supply to operators. Growth then follows the number of surfaces deployed, the price per panel, the share that are controllable and the spread of planning and management software.

The forecast is sensitive to the timing of control standards, the results of live trials and the speed of operator adoption of high frequency bands.

Scenarios. The base case assumes that control standards are defined with the first 6G specification, that operators buy surfaces for coverage gaps by 2031 and that sensing uses follow later, bringing the inflection to about 2031 and a 2036 value near the middle of the range. An accelerated case assumes strong live trial results and early operator commitments, moving the inflection to 2029 and lifting the 2036 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes that repeaters and small cells meet coverage needs more cheaply and standards stall, moving the inflection to 2034 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Group reports from ETSI that define use cases and requirements.
• Field results on coverage at millimetre wave frequencies.
• Operator interest in lower cost coverage at high frequency bands.
• 6G study work in 3GPP.

Enablers

• Low power panel designs.
• Planning and simulation tools.
• University and industry research partnerships.
• Operator test networks.

Restraints and barriers

• Lack of standard control interfaces.
• Limited proof of gain in live networks.
• Competition from repeaters and small cells.
• Installation cost and planning effort.

The direction of reconfigurable intelligent surfaces is set by control standards, evidence from live networks, the cost against competing coverage tools and the use of higher frequency bands by operators.

The brief assesses standards and policy, vendor and operator funding, panel and control readiness, planning and site readiness and operator readiness, and rates each force for direction, speed and confidence.

The key participants in reconfigurable intelligent surfaces include NTT DOCOMO, INC., KDDI Corporation, AGC Inc., Kyocera Corporation, Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd., Dai Nippon Printing Co., Ltd., Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Nokia Oyj, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., ZTE Corporation, Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Qualcomm Incorporated, NEC Corporation, Fujitsu Limited, China Mobile Communications Group Co., Ltd., Orange S.A., Telefónica, S.A., Vodafone Group Plc, SK Telecom Co., Ltd., Greenerwave, Pivotal Commware, Metacept, TMYTEK, Oulu University, Luleå University of Technology, ETSI, 3GPP and the Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as standards and trials develop.

NTT DOCOMO, INC. and KDDI Corporation lead among operators in trials, Nokia Oyj and Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson lead among network vendors shaping the standards, and AGC Inc. and Kyocera Corporation lead among materials and panel suppliers. Competitive intensity is low because few products are on sale.

Where value migrates. In 2026 value sits with research and trial work and with early panel suppliers that supply operators for tests. By 2031 it moves toward network vendors and panel makers whose products follow the control standards and that supply operators at volume. By 2036 it settles with makers that combine panels, control software and planning tools, where installation, management and sensing services carry the margin. Margins hold for suppliers with standard control interfaces and narrow for makers of fixed panels that repeaters can replace.

Group reports, field results at high frequencies, operator interest and 6G study work support growth, while the lack of control standards, limited proof in live networks, competition from repeaters and installation cost hold back the pace.

Control standards, live network results or cost against repeaters could shift the pace. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: control specifications adopted, operator trials, price per panel and surfaces in commercial service.

Trials and group reports first, then volume use for coverage at high frequencies, then programmable radio environments with sensing is the expected order of change.