Outcome-based cooling contracts Market Outlook 2026–2035: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines cooling-as-a-service, where a provider finances, installs and operates cooling equipment and the customer pays for the cooling used or for a guaranteed result. It tests how far outcome contracts become a standard route for large cooling loads in data centers and industry by 2035, and what that means for cooling manufacturers, data center operators, industrial users and financiers.

The model is older in buildings than in data centers. The Basel Agency for Sustainable Energy, which created the model, reported in November 2020 that its Cooling as a Service initiative had passed USD 50 million of investment, saving 68 GWh of electricity and 36,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, with manufacturing partners including Daikin, Trane, Carrier, Danfoss, Engie and Johnson Controls. In September 2023 Johnson Controls announced a capital-free pay-per-use offer to launch with a customer in the United Arab Emirates. The conclusion is that major manufacturers have accepted the contract model in commercial buildings, and the open question is its spread to far larger data center loads.

Manufacturers are buying the data center technology. Trane agreed in February 2026 to buy LiquidStack, a maker of direct-to-chip and immersion cooling, after agreeing in December 2025 to buy data center thermal management assets from Stellar Energy International. Johnson Controls agreed on 18 February 2026 to buy Alloy Enterprises, which makes direct liquid cooling components. The conclusion is that the two largest suppliers are building full chains from the central plant to the chip, which is the equipment base on which a managed cooling contract can be written.

Connected service is the other condition. In May 2026 a Johnson Controls executive said that the security concern which kept chillers off networks has been cleared with hyperscalers, while data ownership and storage remain unresolved and no workable model yet balances the interests of both sides. The conclusion is that remote monitoring, which a performance contract needs to measure and bill cooling, is technically ready, and the remaining task is a data agreement that operators accept.

The brief treats outcome-based cooling contracts as an emerging signal with a nine year horizon to 2035. It identifies which manufacturers, operators and financiers move first and what each means for contracts, connected service and data center cooling. It is a focused 101-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

A cooling contract based on outcome moves ownership of the chillers and pumps from the customer to the provider. The customer pays for cooling delivered, and the provider takes the risk of equipment cost, efficiency and uptime. The Basel Agency reports that utilities such as electricity and water make up about 80% of lifetime costs of cooling, over a contract life of 15 years. The conclusion is that a provider that runs the plant efficiently keeps the main share of the saving, which aligns its interest with that of the customer.

Efficiency of the equipment sets the margin. Johnson Controls states that its purpose-built data center chillers are 40% more energy efficient than those used two years earlier and use 44% less space, and its YDAM magnetic bearing chiller provides 3.5 MW of cooling. The conclusion is that the cost of delivering a unit of cooling is falling quickly, so a provider that signs a long contract can lock in gains that it keeps.

Liquid cooling changes the equipment under contract. LiquidStack sells direct-to-chip, single-phase immersion and two-phase immersion cooling for AI data centers, and Johnson Controls Silent-Aire CDU platform serves liquid cooling capacities from 500 kW to over 10 MW. The conclusion is that the contract unit in data centers is moving from the chiller to the full thermal chain from plant to chip.

Remote monitoring makes billing and service possible. Johnson Controls states that connected service lets it or a specialist monitor performance in real time, order parts before planned visits and offset a shortage of technicians through preventive maintenance. The conclusion is that connectivity lowers the cost of service for the provider, which is a condition for taking on uptime guarantees.

The limits are contract length and credit risk, operator trust for critical cooling and data ownership and security. The brief tests each limit against the cost trajectory to 2035.

The outcome-based cooling contracts market, covering cooling supplied under pay-per-use, performance guarantee and managed service contracts in which the provider finances, installs, owns or operates the cooling plant for data centers, industrial sites and large commercial buildings, measured by annual contract revenue, and excluding cooling equipment sales, conventional maintenance contracts and district cooling tariffs, is valued at USD 3.0–4.5 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 9.76–14.63 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 14%.

The 2026 base rests on cooling contracts signed with data center operators, industrial users and large commercial buildings in the Middle East, Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America. Growth then follows data center cooling load, the share of cooling plant financed by the provider and the number of connected chillers under service.

The forecast is sensitive to operator trust for critical cooling, data ownership agreements and the cost of financing long contracts.

The base case assumes hyperscalers accept connected service and a data ownership model emerges, bringing the inflection to about 2032 and a 2035 value near the middle of the range. An accelerated case assumes large operators sign outcome contracts for new capacity early and financiers fund them, bringing the inflection to 2030 and lifting the 2035 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes operators keep ownership of critical cooling and data disputes persist, moving the inflection to 2034 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Data center cooling demand.
• Capital cost avoidance.
• Energy cost and efficiency gains.
• Technician shortages and maintenance cost.

Enablers

• Monitoring and connected service advances.
• Liquid cooling and chiller advances.
• Savings and efficiency evidence.
• Manufacturer and financier partnerships.

Restraints and barriers

• Contract length and credit risk.
• Operator trust for critical cooling.
• Data ownership and security.
• Differences in national rules and standards.

The direction of cooling-as-a-service is set by customer demand for capital-free cooling, manufacturer and investor funding, the share of energy and utility cost in cooling, advances in monitoring and connected service, and the readiness of operators and providers to sign long outcome contracts.

The key participants in outcome-based cooling contracts and cooling-as-a-service include Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Daikin Industries, Ltd., Danfoss A/S, ENGIE SA, Schneider Electric SE, Vertiv Holdings Co, Siemens AG, Honeywell International Inc., Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, LG Electronics Inc., Equinix, Inc., Digital Realty Trust, Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com, Inc., Veolia Environnement SA, Eaton Corporation plc, Modine Manufacturing Company, Munters Group AB, Alfa Laval AB, GEA Group AG, Lennox International Inc., Atlas Copco AB, Hitachi, Ltd., NVIDIA Corporation, Meta Platforms, Inc., Oracle Corporation, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation, Iron Mountain Incorporated, Alibaba Group Holding Limited, Tencent Holdings Limited, the Basel Agency for Sustainable Energy, the CaaS Alliance, the United Nations Environment Programme, Climate Policy Initiative, ASHRAE, the Open Compute Project Foundation and the International Energy Agency.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as data center and industrial outcome contracts scale.

Johnson Controls, Trane, Carrier and Daikin lead among HVAC and cooling manufacturers, Vertiv, Schneider Electric and Eaton lead among power and thermal system providers, and Equinix, Digital Realty and Microsoft lead among data center operators and technology firms. Competitive intensity is rising as manufacturers buy liquid cooling technology and compete to write the first large data center cooling contracts.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with manufacturers that supply cooling equipment and service, and with energy service companies that run plants under long contracts. By 2032 it moves toward providers with connected monitoring, installed base and financing partners, because these let a provider take on uptime guarantees at an acceptable cost. By 2035 it settles with outcome contracts as a standard route for large cooling loads, where service reach, connected data and financing carry the margin. Margins hold for providers that run efficient plants and keep customers on long contracts, and narrow for equipment sales without service.

Trane and Johnson Controls acquisitions in liquid cooling, connected chiller service moving toward data centers and a pay-per-use offer from a major manufacturer support growth, while contract length and credit risk, operator trust for critical cooling and data ownership hold back the pace.

Operators that insist on owning critical cooling, unresolved data ownership and weak financing could slow progress. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: contracted cooling capacity, number of connected chillers, data center outcome contracts signed and cost per unit of cooling.

Pay-per-use contracts for commercial buildings first, then connected chillers and liquid cooling contracts, then standard route status for large loads is the expected order of change.