On-site hydrogen supply contracts Market Outlook 2026–2036: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines hydrogen-as-a-service, where a provider builds, owns and operates hydrogen production or storage at or near the site of an industrial user, and the user pays for the hydrogen supplied. It tests how far on-site contracts become a standard route for industrial hydrogen by 2036, and what that means for industrial gas companies, electrolyser makers, energy companies and industrial users.

The contract form is long established in industrial gases. In July 2026 Linde was awarded a long-term agreement to build, own and operate two new air separation units at its Phoenix, Arizona site for one of the largest semiconductor manufacturers, with an investment of USD 1 billion, and its Taiwan joint venture Linde LienHwa plans about USD 800 million of sites that include hydrogen production units alongside air separation units. The conclusion is that the largest industrial gas company already signs long build-own-operate contracts at this scale, and hydrogen units are being added to the same contract form.

Low-carbon supply is moving from plan to financed project. Air Products reports that the NEOM Green Hydrogen project, which it owns equally with ACWA Power and NEOM Company, has an engineering, procurement and construction agreement of USD 6.7 billion, non-recourse project financing of about USD 6.1 billion expected to fund about 69% of the project and borrowings of USD 5.5 billion at 30 June 2026. The conclusion is that a very large low-carbon hydrogen plant has secured bank funding on a project basis, which shows that lenders will fund long supply structures.

Smaller on-site models are appearing. In June 2026 H-Power secured a contract to supply Protium in the United Kingdom with 5,000 kg of fuel cell grade hydrogen produced from bio-ammonia and signed a 12 month agreement to set up a virtual hydrogen depot at its Dunsfold site, and in March 2026 Hydrexia signed a contract to provide solid-state hydrogen storage for a hospital fuel cell in Washington. The conclusion is that supply, storage and depot services are being sold as contracts to small users, though at volumes that are tiny against industrial demand.

The brief treats on-site hydrogen supply contracts as an emerging signal with a ten year horizon to 2036. It identifies which industrial gas companies, electrolyser makers and users move first and what each means for contracts, low-carbon supply and industrial gas. It is a focused 111-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

An on-site hydrogen contract places the production unit at the customer site. The provider designs, builds and operates it, and the customer pays for hydrogen taken, often under a long take-or-pay contract. The conclusion is that the customer avoids the capital cost and the operating risk, and the provider earns a return over the life of the contract, which is the structure Linde uses for its Phoenix agreement.

Purity sets the specification. H-Power states that its hydrogen meets ISO 14687 Grade D with 99.97% purity for PEM fuel cells. The conclusion is that a supply contract carries a quality guarantee as well as a volume, and providers that can meet it reliably hold an advantage.

Storage and depots extend the model to small users. Hydrexia describes a low-temperature solid-state storage solution for a hospital fuel cell and H-Power a virtual depot for third-party customers, which the Environment Agency of the United Kingdom approved until August 2026. The conclusion is that permits for third-party supply are a condition for growth of service models outside the large plant.

Project scale shows the pipeline. The Hydrogen Council Global Hydrogen Compass, with data as of July 2025, reports about 510 committed projects representing about USD 110 billion, about 6 Mtpa of committed clean hydrogen capacity with 1 Mtpa operating, and about 3.6 Mtpa of binding offtake, roughly 60% of committed capacity. The conclusion is that a large share of capacity has a contracted buyer, and these contracts are the base for later service models.

The limits are contract length and credit risk, industrial user trust for critical gas and permits and safety rules. The brief tests each limit against the cost trajectory to 2036.

The on-site hydrogen supply contracts market, covering long-term take-or-pay and pay-per-kilogram contracts under which a provider builds, owns and operates hydrogen production, storage or supply units at or near the site of an industrial user, including electrolysis, reforming with carbon capture and storage services, measured by annual contract revenue, and excluding merchant delivered hydrogen, equipment sales without operation and hydrogen produced by the user for its own use, is valued at USD 7–10 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 21.74–31.06 billion by 2036, at a CAGR of 12%.

The 2026 base rests on on-site hydrogen units and supply contracts with chemical, refining, electronics, metals and specialty users in North America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Growth then follows the shift to low-carbon hydrogen, the share of users that contract supply instead of delivering or producing it and the cost of electrolysis.

The forecast is sensitive to carbon rules, the cost of low-carbon production and the credit of long contracts.

The base case assumes low-carbon hydrogen costs fall and carbon rules tighten gradually, bringing the inflection to about 2032 and a 2036 value near the middle of the range. An accelerated case assumes strong carbon pricing and fast cost decline in electrolysis, bringing the inflection to 2030 and lifting the 2036 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes projects are cancelled and users keep delivered supply, moving the inflection to 2034 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Supply security and delivery cost.
• Capital cost avoidance.
• Carbon rules and low-carbon targets.
• Electronics, chemicals and steel hydrogen demand.

Enablers

• Electrolyser and storage advances.
• Connected monitoring advances.
• Project and cost evidence.
• Industrial gas company and investor partnerships.

Restraints and barriers

• Contract length and credit risk.
• Industrial user trust for critical gas.
• Permits and safety rules.
• Differences in national rules and standards.

The direction of hydrogen-as-a-service is set by customer demand for secure hydrogen supply, industrial gas company and investor funding, the cost of delivered hydrogen and carbon rules, advances in electrolysers and storage, and the readiness of industrial users and providers to sign long supply contracts.

The key participants in on-site hydrogen supply contracts and hydrogen-as-a-service include Linde plc, Air Liquide SA, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., Messer SE & Co. KGaA, Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation, Iwatani Corporation, Nel ASA, ITM Power plc, Plug Power Inc., Bloom Energy Corporation, thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA, Siemens Energy AG, Cummins Inc., Ballard Power Systems Inc., Shell plc, BP p.l.c., TotalEnergies SE, Equinor ASA, ACWA Power Company, Toyota Motor Corporation, Dow Inc., BASF SE, Yara International ASA, CF Industries Holdings, Inc., ArcelorMittal SA, thyssenkrupp AG, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, Honeywell International Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation, Baker Hughes Company, Johnson Matthey Plc, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., the Hydrogen Council, Hydrogen Europe, the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the United States Department of Energy and the European Commission.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as low-carbon on-site supply scales.

Linde, Air Liquide and Air Products lead among industrial gas companies, Nel, ITM Power, Plug Power and thyssenkrupp nucera lead among electrolyser makers, and Shell, BP, TotalEnergies and Equinor lead among energy companies. Competitive intensity is rising as electrolyser makers and energy companies seek long supply contracts that industrial gas companies have held.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with industrial gas companies that run on-site units under long contracts and with developers of large low-carbon projects. By 2032 it moves toward providers with low-carbon production, financing and operating record, because these win long contracts from users that must cut emissions. By 2036 it settles with on-site contracts as a standard route for industrial hydrogen, where operating record, low-carbon supply and financing carry the margin. Margins hold for providers with long contracts and reliable supply, and narrow for equipment supply without operation.

The Linde build-own-operate award, project financing at NEOM, virtual depot contracts and 510 committed projects support growth, while contract length and credit risk, user trust for critical gas and permit and safety rules hold back the pace.

Project cancellations, high low-carbon hydrogen cost and users who keep delivered supply could slow progress. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: contracted hydrogen capacity, on-site contracts signed, cost per kilogram of low-carbon hydrogen and share of capacity with binding offtake.

On-site supply for chemical and electronics users first, then low-carbon on-site supply at scale, then standard route status is the expected order of change.