Cement and steel carbon capture Market Outlook 2026–2038: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines point-source carbon capture at cement, steel and chemicals plants, meaning capture units fitted to the stacks and process streams of industrial sites that cannot avoid CO2 emissions. It tests whether the first commercial plants, tax credits and public funding lead to a series of projects, and which producers, technology suppliers and engineering firms gain.

The first commercial cement plant is operating, with limits. Heidelberg Materials inaugurated its Brevik plant in Norway in June 2025 with capacity of 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, yet the capture rate stood at 50% in January 2026 because of limited waste heat. The conclusion is that capture works on a cement kiln at commercial scale, and heat supply and plant integration decide the share of emissions captured.

Projects are following, but scale is small against the sector. Heidelberg Materials announced the Padeswood plant in Wales for nearly 800,000 tonnes per year with commissioning in 2029, Holcim and Air Liquide signed an agreement in February 2026 for 1.1 million tonnes per year at Obourg in Belgium, and planned projects would still capture less than 2% of cement emissions by 2035. The conclusion is that the first wave proves the technology, and a much larger wave of final investment decisions is needed for the sector to be affected.

Funding and storage links decide which projects proceed. The Brevik funding model covered more than 80% of capital costs, projects in Sweden and California were delayed, paused or cancelled after losing government finance, and the Obourg decision depends on partnerships along the value chain and public support. The conclusion is that public funding and access to transport and storage remain the conditions for every project.

The brief treats cement and steel carbon capture as an accelerating signal with a twelve year horizon to 2038. It identifies which industries, capture routes and companies move first and what each means for producers, suppliers and engineering firms. It is a focused 115-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

Cement, steel and chemicals plants release CO2 from fuel and from the process itself. In cement, limestone releases CO2 when it is heated, so fuel switching cannot remove all emissions, and cement accounts for roughly 8% of global CO2 emissions.

Post-combustion capture uses a solvent to take CO2 from the flue gas, as at Brevik, where the CO2 is liquefied, held in 5,000 cubic metres of interim storage and loaded onto ships at 800 tonnes per hour. Oxyfuel capture burns fuel in oxygen so that the flue gas is rich in CO2, as planned at Obourg with Cryocap OXY technology from Air Liquide.

Chemicals and fertiliser plants emit CO2 in a pure stream, which lowers capture cost. The Yara Sluiskil plant in the Netherlands captures about 800,000 tonnes per year, roughly half of the site emissions, for shipping to Norway.

Uses are lower-carbon cement, steel and chemicals sold under tax credit and carbon pricing frameworks.

The limits are capital cost, waste heat and energy requirements, project cancellations and the lack of transport and storage links. The period turns on whether the first plants lead to a series of final investment decisions.

The cement and steel carbon capture market, covering capture plant engineering, equipment and services at cement, steel, chemicals and fertiliser sites, and excluding CO2 transport and storage, power plant capture, gas processing and direct air capture, is valued at USD 1.2–1.8 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 17.46–26.19 billion by 2038, at a CAGR of 25%.

The 2026 base rests on engineering, equipment and services for capture plants in operation, in construction and in front-end design at cement, steel and chemicals sites, mainly in Europe and North America. Growth then follows final investment decisions on Padeswood, Obourg and follow-on plants, the first commercial steel plants and the spread of capture in chemicals.

The forecast is sensitive to tax credits, public funding, access to transport and storage and the demand for low-carbon materials. Regionally, Europe holds the largest base through the North Sea storage chains, followed by North America and Asia Pacific.

The base case assumes follow-on projects such as Padeswood and Obourg proceed and reach operation by 2030, with shared storage available. An accelerated case assumes firm tax credits and carbon prices and faster storage build-out, bringing the inflection to 2029 and lifting the 2038 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes further cancellations and funding gaps, moving the inflection to 2035 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Process emissions that cannot be avoided.
• Carbon prices and tax credits.
• Public funding for first plants.
• Demand for low-carbon materials.

Enablers

• Operating reference plants.
• Capture technology suppliers and engineering firms.
• Shared transport and storage hubs.
• Industry partnerships.

Restraints and barriers

• Capital cost and funding gaps.
• Project delays and cancellations.
• Waste heat and energy requirements.
• Lack of transport and storage links.

The direction of cement and steel carbon capture is set by the first commercial cement plants, tax credits and public funding, access to CO2 transport and storage, customer demand for low-carbon cement and steel, and project delays and cancellations.

The key participants in cement and steel carbon capture include Heidelberg Materials AG, Holcim Ltd, Air Liquide SA, CRH plc, Cemex, S.A.B. de C.V., Taiheiyo Cement Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A., Tata Steel Limited, Nippon Steel Corporation, Yara International ASA, BASF SE, Dow Inc., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., SLB, Carbon Clean Solutions Limited, Svante Inc., Honeywell International Inc., Linde plc, Worley Limited, Equinor ASA, Shell plc, TotalEnergies SE, Eni S.p.A., Fluor Corporation, Technip Energies N.V., Baker Hughes Company, Aker Solutions ASA, UltraTech Cement Limited, Votorantim Cimentos S.A., Buzzi S.p.A., Titan Cement International S.A., Ørsted A/S, POSCO Holdings Inc., Baowu Steel Group Corporation Limited, thyssenkrupp AG, SSAB AB, Lhoist, Antwerp@C, HyNet North West, Northern Lights, LeadIT, Stockholm Environment Institute and Global Cement and Concrete Association.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as plants move from the first wave to a series.

Heidelberg Materials, Holcim and Air Liquide lead among cement producers and suppliers with named projects, Yara leads among chemicals producers with a plant in operation, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, SLB and Carbon Clean lead among capture technology suppliers. Competitive intensity is low, since few plants operate, and rising as engineering firms and gas companies offer standard capture units.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with producers and suppliers that have plants in operation or in construction, because references decide who wins the next projects. By 2032 it moves toward engineering firms and standard capture units, as a series of plants replaces one-off designs. By 2038 it settles with integrated offers that combine capture, storage and low-carbon products sold at a premium. Margins hold for suppliers with proven plants and narrow for those competing for projects without funding.

The signals converge on a first plant and a pipeline of projects. Brevik in operation, Padeswood approved, Obourg planned and more than 175 tracked projects support growth, while a 50% capture rate, cancelled projects and funding gaps limit the pace.

Structural limits show where progress could slow: waste heat, funding, storage links and cancellations. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: plants in operation, final investment decisions, capture rate achieved and CO2 contracted for storage.

Cement first, then chemicals and fertiliser, then steel are the expected order of adoption.