Cancer Therapy Market (2026-2036)

The growth of this market is mainly driven by the rising global cancer incidence and ageing populations, the rapid expansion of antibody-drug conjugates and bispecific antibodies into earlier lines of therapy, the adoption of biomarker-guided precision oncology, the maturation of cell therapy and radioligand therapy into commercial modalities, and widening treatment access across emerging markets. However, the loss of exclusivity on the largest checkpoint inhibitors and monoclonal antibodies, government price-setting and health technology assessment pressure, the complexity and cost of manufacturing cell and radioligand therapies, and late-stage clinical attrition restrain the growth of this market.

Furthermore, subcutaneous and oral reformulation of established biologics, radioligand therapy across new tumour targets, allogeneic and in vivo cell therapy platforms, and biosimilar entry opening volume in emerging markets are expected to offer growth opportunities for the stakeholders in this market. However, crowding around validated targets, treatment sequencing and resistance after successive lines of therapy, access and delivery capacity for complex therapies, and the toxicity burden of combination regimens remain major challenges impacting the growth of this market. Additionally, the shift from intravenous to subcutaneous administration, the move of advanced modalities into first-line and adjuvant settings, the rise of China as a source of oncology innovation, and the convergence of modalities within combination regimens are prominent trends in this market.

The Cancer Therapy Market comprises the medicines and biologics used to treat malignant disease, spanning targeted therapy, including small-molecule kinase and pathway inhibitors, monoclonal antibodies and antibody-drug conjugates; immunotherapy, including immune checkpoint inhibitors, bispecific antibodies and T-cell engagers, chimeric antigen receptor T-cell and other cell therapies, therapeutic cancer vaccines and oncolytic viruses; cytotoxic chemotherapy; hormonal and endocrine therapy; and radiopharmaceutical and radioligand therapy. Market value is measured at manufacturer sales of approved therapeutic products, and excludes radiotherapy equipment and services, surgical oncology, diagnostics and companion testing, and supportive care medicines such as antiemetics and growth factors, which are addressed separately. The ecosystem spans pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, contract development and manufacturing organisations for biologics, cell therapy and radioisotope supply, specialty distributors and pharmacies, treatment centres from academic cancer institutes to community oncology practices, payers and health technology assessment bodies, and the regulators that approve and monitor these products.

Demand is underpinned by epidemiology that continues to worsen. The International Agency for Research on Cancer estimated about 20 million new cancer cases and 9.7 million cancer deaths worldwide in 2022, and projected new cases to exceed 35 million by 2050 as populations grow and age. Because cancer incidence rises steeply with age, the ageing of populations in North America, Europe, China, Japan and South Korea raises case numbers independently of any change in age-specific risk, while incidence is rising in lower-income countries as life expectancy increases and risk factor exposure shifts. Breast, lung, colorectal and prostate cancers account for the largest share of new cases and are the indications in which the newest therapeutic modalities are being developed most intensively.

This market is dominated by a small number of very large products, and that position is expected to change over the forecast period. Merck reported Keytruda sales of USD 31,680 million in 2025, up from USD 29,482 million in 2024 and USD 25,011 million in 2023, within total Pharmaceutical segment sales of USD 58,142 million, alongside Lynparza alliance revenue of USD 1,450 million, Lenvima alliance revenue of USD 1,053 million and Welireg sales of USD 716 million. Merck states that the U.S. patent for Keytruda expires in 2028, with two additional patents expiring in 2029 that it expects to litigate, and that European protection runs to 2031, Japanese protection to 2032 and 2033, and Chinese protection to 2028. The company further states that it expects Keytruda to be selected for government price setting in 2027, effective 1 January 2029, after which U.S. sales of Keytruda will decline materially.

Growth is therefore shifting to newer modalities and to reformulated biologics. Johnson & Johnson reported Oncology sales of USD 25,380 million in 2025, up 22.1% on a reported basis and 20.9% operationally, including Darzalex at USD 14,351 million, up 23.0%, and the BCMA-directed cell therapy Carvykti at USD 1,887 million, up 95.9%, within total Innovative Medicine sales of USD 60,401 million. Merck has responded to the Keytruda cliff with a subcutaneous formulation, Keytruda Qlex, approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in September 2025 across most adult solid tumour indications and protected in the U.S. to 2043, with a pending European application that would expire in 2040. The forecast therefore assumes strong growth in antibody-drug conjugates, bispecific antibodies, cell therapy and radioligand therapy, partially offset by erosion of branded checkpoint inhibitor and monoclonal antibody revenue from 2028 onward, producing steady rather than accelerating growth in the market as a whole through 2036.