Artillery Ammunition Market (2026-2036)

The growth of this market is mainly driven by the high consumption of artillery ammunition in the Russia-Ukraine war, the replenishment of depleted NATO and allied stockpiles, rising defense budgets and stockpile targets across Europe and Asia-Pacific, and government investment in expanding ammunition production capacity. However, bottlenecks in energetics, propellants, and projectile metal parts, together with the long lead times and high capital costs of new production facilities, restrain the growth of this market.

Furthermore, the growing adoption of precision-guided and extended-range artillery ammunition, the standardization of allied forces on 155mm NATO ammunition, and the expansion of joint and multinational procurement are expected to offer growth opportunities for the stakeholders in this market. However, the risk of demand normalization after the current rearmament cycle remains a major challenge impacting the growth of this market. Additionally, multi-year procurement frameworks, the localization of production in allied countries including Ukraine, and investment in sovereign energetics supply chains are prominent trends in this market.

The Artillery Ammunition Market comprises ammunition fired by tube artillery and mortars, including complete rounds and their principal components. The market covers 155mm, 105mm, and Soviet-standard 152mm and 122mm howitzer ammunition and 60mm, 81mm, and 120mm mortar ammunition, across high-explosive, extended-range, precision-guided, smoke, illumination, and training rounds, together with projectiles, fuzes, modular propellant charges, energetics, primers, and cartridge cases. Rocket artillery munitions and loitering munitions are excluded from the market value. The market value is based on procurement by governments and armed forces, including procurement funded by allies on behalf of Ukraine, and excludes production by the Russian Federation, Belarus, North Korea, and Iran, which is not commercially addressable and for which reliable data is unavailable. The market ecosystem extends from suppliers of steel, nitrocellulose, and explosives to projectile and fuze manufacturers, load-assemble-pack facilities, prime contractors, government-owned ammunition plants, procurement agencies, and armed forces.

The market is experiencing strong growth because the war in Ukraine has demonstrated that artillery consumption in high-intensity conflict far exceeds the peacetime production capacity of Western industry. According to a July 2026 report by the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General, the Department used 3.6 million 155mm artillery rounds over the past four years, of which more than 3 million were transferred to Ukraine. The U.S. Army set a goal of producing 100,000 155mm rounds per month by October 2025, but production reached about 36,000 rounds per month as of March 2026, up from about 14,000 per month before the war, with projectile metal parts production identified as the limiting factor. The Army aims to load, assemble, and pack 140,000 155mm rounds per month by December 2027 through the modernization of existing plants and new facilities in Kansas and Arkansas.

Europe has made ammunition production a central element of its defense industrial policy. The European Union's Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) allocated about EUR 500 million to 31 projects in March 2024, covering explosives, powder, shells, missiles, and testing, with total investment including industry co-financing of around EUR 1.4 billion, and set a target of annual production capacity of 2 million shells by the end of 2025. At the opening of Rheinmetall's Unterlüß plant in August 2025, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Europe's annual artillery ammunition production capacity was six times larger than two years earlier and was expected to reach 2 million rounds by the end of 2025. Rheinmetall reported Weapon and Ammunition segment sales of EUR 3,532 million in 2025, an increase of 27%, with Ukraine as the most important customer country.

Coalition procurement has become a distinct demand channel. The Czech-led ammunition initiative, funded by a coalition of allied countries, sources large-caliber ammunition globally for Ukraine; Czech officials reported deliveries of around 1.5 million rounds in 2024 and 1.8 million in 2025, and in May 2026 the Czech Ministry of Defence stated that contracts had been secured for around one million rounds for 2026 with nearly EUR 1 billion in funding. Czechoslovak Group, one of the principal suppliers, stated that the rounds delivered under the initiative were valued at between EUR 4 billion and EUR 4.5 billion. Production is also being localized in Ukraine, with European manufacturers partnering with Ukrainian companies to produce NATO-caliber shells domestically.

Long-term demand is supported by structural increases in defense spending and stockpile requirements. NATO members agreed in 2025 to raise the Alliance's defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035, and European states are rebuilding war reserve stocks that had been reduced for decades. At the same time, the market faces a normalization risk: current volumes are elevated by wartime consumption and restocking, and growth is expected to moderate as stockpiles are rebuilt and production capacity catches up with demand. The long-term growth rate of the market therefore reflects a shift from emergency procurement toward sustained, higher baseline demand.