Process heat electrification Market Outlook 2026–2036: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines process heat electrification through high-temperature heat pumps that deliver hot water and steam at 100 to 160 degrees Celsius to food, beverage, paper, chemical and light manufacturing plants. It tests whether heat pumps move from pilot projects to the standard way of supplying low and medium temperature process heat.

Process heat is the largest use of energy in industry and is almost entirely fossil fuelled. It accounts for as much as 51 percent of on-site industrial energy use in the United States, electricity supplies less than 5 percent of it, and in the food and beverage sector 97 percent of heat is needed below 130 degrees. The conclusion is that most of the heat in these plants sits within the reach of commercially available heat pumps.

Commercial units now reach into that range. Commercially available industrial heat pumps provide process heat up to 160 degrees, a Johnson Controls range launched in September 2026 delivers hot water up to 122 degrees from 100 kW to 1 MW, and a CANNON Bono range launched in October 2026 covers 300 kW to 4 MW with coefficients of performance from 2 to above 6. The conclusion is that suppliers are now selling standard products for the temperatures that food and beverage plants use.

Plant results show the economics. A paper mill in Italy produces steam at 115 degrees from cogeneration cooling heat with a coefficient of 5.25, a site using the Johnson Controls range reports energy costs more than 91 percent lower, and ACEEE research shows paybacks under two years in some applications and energy use up to one-third lower. The conclusion is that the case rests on recovering waste heat that plants already produce, not on electricity alone.

The brief treats process heat electrification with heat pumps as a high-impact signal with a ten year horizon to 2036. It identifies which sectors, temperature bands and companies move first and what each means for manufacturers and suppliers. It is a focused 104-page decision brief that presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model.

A heat pump takes heat from a source such as a refrigeration circuit, a cogeneration cooling loop or process effluent, and raises it with a compressor to the temperature the plant needs. The efficiency falls as the lift grows, so plants with warm waste heat and moderate temperature needs are the first to adopt.

The Johnson Controls Sabroe range delivers hot water up to 122 degrees with turndown to 18 percent of design load and butane or isobutane refrigerants, the CANNON Bono range uses reciprocating compressors with refrigerants below 5 in global warming potential, and Turboden has supplied a 12 MW unit raising heat to steam at 170 degrees for a paper plant. The conclusion is that suppliers are extending standard modular designs upward in temperature rather than building one-off systems.

Pasteurisation, sterilisation, cleaning, drying and indirect steam production are the main uses, and food, beverage, pharmaceutical, paper and chemical plants are the main buyers. A single food plant site reports emissions up to 82 percent lower and up to three times the energy efficiency of electric boilers, which shows why heat pumps are preferred to electric boilers wherever waste heat is available.

Hybrid systems that combine a heat pump with an electric boiler and thermal storage cover peaks and let plants buy power at low prices.

The limits are capital cost, the price of electricity against gas, the maximum supply temperature and the capacity of the grid connection. The period turns on whether electricity prices and subsidies keep payback within the investment horizon of plant owners.

The high-temperature heat pumps market, covering heat pumps delivering hot water and steam at 100 to 160 degrees Celsius to food, beverage, paper, chemical and light manufacturing plants, with installation, controls and service, and excluding steam generating units above 160 degrees, mechanical vapour recompression systems, electric boilers, and heat pumps for buildings and district heating, is valued at USD 0.9–1.5 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 4.33–7.21 billion by 2036, at a CAGR of 17%.

The 2026 base rests on heat pumps for pasteurisation, cleaning, drying and low pressure steam in food, beverage, paper and chemical plants, mainly in Europe, the United States and Japan. Growth then follows higher supply temperatures, capital grants and the electricity to gas price ratio.

The forecast is sensitive to electricity prices, subsidies and the grid capacity available at plant sites. Regionally, Europe holds the largest base, followed by North America and Asia Pacific.

Base case.

The base case assumes grants stay in place and electricity prices fall slowly against gas, bringing the inflection to about 2029.

Accelerated case.

An accelerated case assumes lower electricity prices and faster supplier launches above 130 degrees, bringing the inflection to 2027 and lifting the 2036 value to the top of the range.

Delayed case.

A delayed case assumes high electricity prices and slow grid connections, moving the inflection to 2032 and holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Lower energy use per unit of heat.
• Emissions reduction targets.
• Waste heat from refrigeration and cogeneration.
• Paybacks under two years in some applications.

Enablers

• Low global warming potential refrigerants.
• Capital grants and tax incentives.
• Modular factory-assembled units.
• Industry alliances and decision tools.

Restraints and barriers

• Capital cost.
• Electricity price against gas.
• Supply temperature limits.
• Grid connection and plant integration.

The direction of process heat electrification is set by the share of process heat in industrial energy use, the electricity to gas price ratio, public subsidies and targets, higher supply temperatures and customer decarbonisation commitments.

The key participants in process heat electrification with high-temperature heat pumps include Johnson Controls International plc, GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft, Siemens Energy AG, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., Everllence SE, Mayekawa Mfg. Co., Ltd., Kobe Steel, Ltd., Fuji Electric Co., Ltd., Yanmar Holdings Co., Ltd., BITZER SE, Combitherm GmbH, Oilon Group Oy, Ochsner Wärmepumpen GmbH, Spilling Technologies GmbH, Piller Group GmbH, Qpinch NV, AtmosZero, Inc., Heaten AS, CANNON Bono Energia S.r.l., Olvondo Technology GmbH, Aneo Industry AS, Karman Industries, Inc., EPCON Evaporation Technology AS, Heineken N.V., Nestlé S.A., Mars, Incorporated, AkzoNobel N.V., PepsiCo, Inc., The Procter & Gamble Company, Agrana Beteiligungs-AG, Wienerberger AG, Vattenfall AB, Skjern Paper, Snellman, Cartiere di Guarcino, Armstrong International, Thermal Energy International, Renewable Thermal Collaborative, American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Industrial Heat Pump Alliance, Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, United States Department of Energy, European Commission and International Energy Agency.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as supply temperatures rise.

Johnson Controls, GEA, Mayekawa and CANNON Bono lead among refrigeration and heat pump manufacturers with products for hot water and low pressure steam, Siemens Energy, Everllence and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries lead in larger units, and Heineken, Nestlé and Mars lead among users replacing gas heat. Competitive intensity is moderate, with many specialists selling small numbers of units.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with hot water and low pressure steam units in food, beverage and paper plants. By 2031 it moves toward steam at 120 to 160 degrees and standard modular designs sold across sectors. By 2036 it settles with heat supply contracts in which suppliers own and operate the units and sell heat to plants. Margins hold for suppliers with plant references and narrow for suppliers of units without them.

The signals converge on rising temperature and falling payback. More than 60 listed technologies, new product ranges in September and October 2026 and paybacks under two years in some applications support growth, while capital cost, electricity prices and grid connections hold back orders.

Structural limits show where progress could slow: electricity to gas price ratios, supply temperature, plant integration and grant levels. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: units in operation above 120 degrees, capacity installed, coefficient of performance at high lift and grant budgets.

Hot water first, then low pressure steam, then steam at 120 to 160 degrees is the expected order of adoption.