Electrified and Modular Processes Market Outlook 2026–2038: Market Size, Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast for Chemical Producers and EPCs — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines how electrified and modular process technologies, meaning furnaces and reactors heated by electricity instead of fuel, and plants built from factory-made modules instead of on site, change chemical production over the next twelve years. The change runs from the cracking furnace that makes ethylene to the module shipped by sea to the site, and it affects both the emissions and the cost of building chemical capacity.

The case begins with heat. Steam crackers, the largest source of emissions in many chemical complexes, typically run at about 850 degrees Celsius and are fired by fossil fuel. Replacing combustion with electric heating removes direct emissions if the power is renewable. BASF states its goal for the electric furnace as a reduction of at least 90% against common steam cracker technology. This is a project goal, not a measured result, but it explains why every large cracker owner is testing electrification.

The first proof is demonstration. BASF, SABIC and Linde started a demonstration plant for electrically heated steam cracking at the BASF site in Ludwigshafen on 17 April 2024. It has two electrically heated furnaces that process about 4 tonnes of hydrocarbon feed an hour and use 6 megawatts of renewable electricity. Shell and Dow put an experimental e-cracking furnace into operation at the Energy Transition Campus Amsterdam in June 2022. Demonstrations at megawatt scale are the step before commercial furnaces, which for a one million tonne cracker would require far more heat, in the order of hundreds of megawatts.

The second proof is the technology push beyond the furnace. Coolbrook announced that its RotoDynamic Heater passed 1,000 degrees Celsius in a pilot of more than 5,000 operating hours, secured Business Finland funding on 29 June 2026 to accelerate electrification for steel, and moved into the delivery phase of an industrial project with ABB at Adani Cement on 20 July 2026. It targets a commercial launch of its electric cracking reactor in 2029. Electric heat is therefore being proven first in cement and steel, where temperatures and economics are more forgiving, and then in petrochemicals.

The third thread is modular construction. INEOS chose modules for its EUR 5 billion Project ONE ethane cracker in Antwerp because the site lacked space. The last two modules, weighing 6,920 and 7,200 tonnes, reached the port on 28 July 2026 after months of delay on the voyage from the Gulf, and the plant is planned to start in the second half of 2027. The case shows both sides of modular building: a smaller site workforce and parallel construction, and a long and exposed supply chain.

The brief maps the technology, its indicative market size and forecast, the factors behind its growth, the developments of the last 24 months, the key players and the adoption trajectory to 2038.

It is a focused 115-page decision brief for chemical producers, engineering, procurement and construction contractors, equipment and power suppliers, investors and policy makers. It presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model. Its purpose is to identify which processes electrify first, how power supply, carbon prices and module logistics sequence demand, and who captures value as the chemical plant is redesigned.

Electrified processes replace combustion with electric heat. In a steam cracker, hydrocarbons flow through coils inside a furnace heated by burners. An electric furnace heats the coils or the gas directly with resistance, induction or other methods. Direct emissions fall to near zero when the electricity is renewable, but the power demand is very large, because a one million tonne a year ethylene cracker needs a furnace of roughly 170 to 315 megawatts of thermal duty.

Several designs compete. BASF, SABIC and Linde chose electrically heated furnaces that follow the shape of conventional furnaces, so they can retrofit existing crackers. Shell and Dow are developing both electric upgrades for existing furnaces and longer-term electric crackers, with research partners TNO and ISPT. Coolbrook uses a rotating device to transfer energy to the gas, aiming for temperatures above 1,000 degrees Celsius and a higher yield of ethylene and propylene, a claim drawn from pilot work and modelling.

Power is the central constraint. An electrified cracker draws a large and steady load, so it needs grid capacity, long-term renewable power contracts and often storage. This is why electric heat appears first where power is cheap and heat needs are smaller, such as cement and steel, and why petrochemical electrification is gated by regional power prices and grid connections.

Modular construction changes how plants are built. Process modules, piping racks and units are fabricated in yards with skilled labour and controlled conditions, shipped to the site and connected. Parallel civil work cuts the schedule and the on-site workforce. INEOS used this for Project ONE, with about 2,500 workers from roughly 80 contractors on site at its peak. The risks are shipping, size and interface complexity, as the delayed final modules showed.

The constraints are cost, power and risk. Electric furnaces cost more to run when electricity is dearer than fuel. Demonstrations are small compared with commercial crackers. Operators hesitate to change the heart of an asset that runs for decades. Support from public programmes, such as the Dutch MOOI scheme and the German Decarbonization in Industry programme, has been needed to fund demonstrations. The horizon is long because investment decisions follow furnace replacement cycles.

The electrified and modular processes market, covering electric heating furnaces and reactors for chemical processes, power integration equipment, modular process units and related engineering and services for chemical producers, and excluding conventional fired furnaces, general construction services and electrolysers, is valued at USD 4–6 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 25–40 billion by 2038, at a CAGR of 15–16%.

The 2026 base rests on electric process heaters and industrial heating systems, demonstration and pilot furnaces, modular units for chemical plants, and associated engineering. From that base, growth follows the first commercial electric furnaces and the spread of module-based construction. Furnace replacement cycles of 20 to 30 years mean that decisions made in the early 2030s shape installations through 2038.

The forecast is sensitive to the price and availability of renewable power, to the carbon price and to the success of demonstration plants. Regionally, Europe leads on carbon pricing and demonstration plants, North America on module construction for large new capacity, the Middle East on integrated complexes with low-cost power and Asia-Pacific on capacity growth.

The base case assumes successful demonstrations, gradual fall in renewable power cost and rising carbon prices, giving the inflection around 2033. An accelerated case adds strong carbon pricing, subsidised grid connections and rapid scale-up of electric furnaces, bringing the inflection to 2030 and lifting the 2038 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes high power prices, weak margins in chemicals and cautious investment, holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Decarbonisation of steam cracking, the heat-intensive core of petrochemicals.
• Demonstration results at megawatt scale from BASF, SABIC, Linde, Shell and Dow.
• Public funding for demonstrations, such as MOOI in the Netherlands and the Decarbonization in Industry programme in Germany.
• Space and schedule benefits of modular construction at crowded sites.

Enablers

• Falling cost of renewable power and long-term supply contracts.
• High-temperature electric heating technology from suppliers such as Coolbrook and ABB.
• Engineering firms with module fabrication yards.
• Retrofit designs that fit existing furnace footprints.

Restraints and barriers

• Very large power demand and grid connection limits.
• Higher operating cost where electricity is dearer than fuel.
• Small scale of demonstrations compared with commercial crackers.
• Long asset life and weak chemical margins that delay investment.

Five converging forces will determine how fast electrified and modular processes scale.

(1) Renewable power price and grid access. (2) Carbon price and policy support. (3) Demonstration results and technology scale-up. (4) Furnace replacement cycles and chemical margins. (5) Module logistics and construction capacity. The brief assesses each force for direction, speed and confidence.

The key players operating in electrified and modular chemical processes include BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Linde plc, Shell plc, Dow Inc., TotalEnergies SE, BP p.l.c., Borealis AG, Repsol, S.A., Eni S.p.A. (Versalis S.p.A.), INEOS Group Holdings S.A., Exxon Mobil Corporation, LyondellBasell Industries N.V., Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, Coolbrook Oy, ABB Ltd, Siemens Energy AG, Technip Energies N.V., Honeywell International Inc., KBR, Inc., Lummus Technology LLC, Fluor Corporation, Worley Limited, Air Liquide S.A., Air Products and Chemicals, Inc., Evonik Industries AG, Covestro AG, Johnson Matthey Plc, Sulzer Ltd, Alfa Laval AB, Kanthal (Sandvik AB), Chart Industries, Inc., Adani Group, Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd., Mitsui Chemicals, Inc., Sinopec, the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), the Institute for Sustainable Process Technology, the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, the European Chemical Industry Council and the European Commission.

The brief profiles representative players in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to commercialise electric heat and modular construction.

The competitive landscape is forming around six archetypes. Cracker owners and chemical producers. Technology licensors and engineering contractors. Electric heating and furnace technology suppliers. Power and electrical equipment suppliers. Industrial gas and utility partners. Research institutes and policy bodies. Competitive intensity is moderate in 2026 and is expected to rise as demonstrations convert into commercial offers through 2033.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits in demonstration engineering and electric heaters for cement and steel. By 2033 it moves to commercial furnaces, power integration and standard modules. By 2038 it settles in furnace licensors with proven references, power equipment suppliers and contractors that deliver modules on schedule. Fired furnace content falls in new capacity.

The signals converge on demonstration and delivery. Electric furnaces run at megawatt scale. High-temperature heaters have moved from pilots to industrial delivery. Modular construction has been proven on a EUR 5 billion cracker. Public funding supports first-of-a-kind plants. Each signal moves electrified and modular processes from concept to the early stages of commercial offers.

Research and patent activity reflects where the chain is weakest: materials for electrically heated coils, uniform heat transfer, control of cokes and fouling, power conditioning and standard module interfaces. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: megawatts of electric process heat installed in chemicals, operating hours of demonstration furnaces, number of commercial electric furnace orders and the share of new capacity built from modules.

Regionally, Europe leads on carbon pricing and demonstration plants, North America on module construction, the Middle East on low-cost power and integrated complexes, and Asia-Pacific on capacity growth. Ethylene, propylene, aromatics, ammonia and specialty chemical plants are the first demand pools, in that order of heat intensity.