Circular rna Market Outlook 2026–2038: Growth Drivers, Key Companies, Strategic Developments & Adoption Forecast — A Meticulous Next™ Foresight Brief

This Meticulous Next™ brief examines circular RNA, RNA joined end to end into a closed loop that resists the enzymes that break down linear mRNA, and its use as a longer-lasting platform for making therapeutic proteins in the body. It tests how fast circular RNA moves from preclinical work into clinical programmes, and which participants capture value among platform developers, large biopharma firms, delivery and manufacturing suppliers and research groups.

In February 2026 Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of Orna Therapeutics, with shareholders able to receive up to USD 2.4 billion in cash including an upfront payment and later payments tied to clinical development milestones. Orna uses engineered circular RNA with lipid nanoparticles, and its lead program ORN-252 is a clinical trial-ready CD19 targeting in vivo CAR-T therapy for B cell driven autoimmune disease. The conclusion is that a large biopharma firm has put a priced bet on circular RNA as the carrier for in vivo cell therapy, and the value depends on clinical milestones still to come.

The case for the platform rests on stability. In a 2015 study of mammary cells, circular RNA had median half-lives of 18.8 to 23.7 hours, at least 2.5 times longer than the 4.0 to 7.4 hours of linear counterparts. Orna reported in 2023 that its circular RNA delivered higher and more durable protein expression than mRNA and was easier to formulate in lipid nanoparticles, and in October 2025 it presented an in vivo panCAR approach for autoimmune disease at the American College of Rheumatology meeting. The conclusion is that longer expression could lower dose and dosing frequency, although the evidence is still from cells and animal models.

Most naturally occurring circular RNAs have an unclear function, and delivery to tissue beyond the liver and immune cells remains a limit. Orna stated in October 2025 that ORN-252 was expected to enter the clinic in the first half of 2026. The conclusion is that the first human data will decide whether the stability seen in the laboratory carries over to patients.

The brief treats circular RNA as an emerging category with a twelve year horizon to 2038. It identifies which applications, regions and operators scale first and what each means for platform developers, large biopharma firms, suppliers and research groups.

It is a focused 106-page decision brief for biopharma firms, investors and research groups. It presents an indicative trajectory rather than a segmented market model. Its purpose is to identify which applications scale first and who captures value.

A circular RNA is a single strand joined end to end, so it has no free ends for exonucleases to attack. This gives it a longer half-life than linear RNA.

Engineered circular RNA is made by self-circularization of a linear precursor, carries an internal ribosome entry site that starts protein synthesis without a cap, and is purified and formulated in lipid nanoparticles.

Delivery sets the target cell. Lipid nanoparticles reach the liver and, with targeting, immune cells that express a chimeric antigen receptor or a replacement protein.

Uses are in vivo cell therapy for autoimmune disease and cancer, protein replacement and vaccines, each under RNA and cell therapy regulation.

The limits are unproven expression and safety in humans, delivery beyond the liver and immune cells, immune effects of impurities and competition from linear mRNA and viral vectors. The decade turns on whether durable expression lowers dose and cost in patients.

The circular RNA market, covering platform licensing and collaboration revenue, preclinical and clinical stage circular RNA therapeutics, and related manufacturing and services, is valued at USD 0.05–0.1 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1.16–2.33 billion by 2038, at a CAGR of 30%.

The 2026 base rests on collaboration and licensing revenue, acquisition related payments and preclinical services. Growth then follows first-in-human data, pivotal programmes and the first approvals.

The forecast is sensitive to clinical results, delivery to new tissues, manufacturing cost and the pace of in vivo cell therapy. Regionally, North America leads on companies and deals, Asia-Pacific on a growing group of circular RNA developers, and Europe on academic research and manufacturing.

The base case assumes first clinical data confirm durable expression and pivotal programmes start around 2030, giving the inflection in 2033. An accelerated case assumes strong early data and lower manufacturing cost, bringing the inflection to 2031 and lifting the 2038 value to the top of the range. A delayed case assumes weak expression in patients and safety concerns, holding growth at the bottom of the range.

Growth drivers

• Limited duration of linear mRNA.
• In vivo CAR-T for autoimmune disease and cancer.
• Protein replacement in rare disease.
• Simpler manufacturing and lipid nanoparticle formulation.

Enablers

• Venture funding and financing rounds.
• Biopharma acquisition and partnering.
• Public research funding.
• Lipid nanoparticle delivery.

Restraints and barriers

• Unproven expression and safety in humans.
• Competition from linear mRNA and viral vectors.
• Delivery limits outside targeted cells.
• Cost of development and manufacture.

The direction of circular RNA is set by the need for longer lasting RNA expression, regulation, new delivery systems and in vivo cell therapy, biopharma acquisition and partnering, and manufacturing cost.

The key participants in circular RNA include Eli Lilly and Company, Sail Biomedicines, Inc., CirCode Biomed Co., Ltd., Moderna, Inc., BioNTech SE, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi, GSK plc, Novartis AG, AstraZeneca PLC, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited, F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, AbbVie Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Roivant Sciences Ltd., Acuitas Therapeutics Inc., Everest Medicines Limited, Lonza Group Ltd, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., Agilent Technologies, Inc., Danaher Corporation, Merck KGaA, Nitto Denko Corporation, Bachem Holding AG, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard Medical School, American Society of Gene & Cell Therapy, American College of Rheumatology, International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy, RNA Society, Flagship Pioneering, Inc., MPM Capital, BioImpact Capital, National Institutes of Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, European Medicines Agency, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency, National Medical Products Administration and United States Pharmacopeia.

The brief profiles representative participants in each archetype and assesses which are positioned to lead as circular RNA matures.

Platform developers such as Sail Biomedicines and CirCode Biomed lead the science alongside the platform now held by Eli Lilly, while large biopharma and RNA medicine firms, RNA manufacturing and delivery suppliers, research institutes and investors, and regulators shape how fast circular RNA reaches patients. Competitive intensity is low in 2026 because few developers hold circular RNA platforms and none has an approved product, and it rises as large biopharma firms acquire or partner for platforms and as linear mRNA developers add durable formats.

Where value migrates.

In 2026 value sits with the platform developers and the firms that acquire or license them, and with suppliers of lipid nanoparticles and RNA. By 2033 it moves toward companies with clinical proof of durable expression and repeat dose data, because pivotal programmes need evidence that dose and cost fall. By 2038 it settles in integrated circular RNA and delivery platforms and suppliers with RNA manufacturing at scale. Margins hold for platforms with clinical proof and narrow for late followers.

The signals converge on investment ahead of clinical proof. A large biopharma firm agreed in February 2026 to acquire a circular RNA company for up to USD 2.4 billion, and the lead candidate was described as ready for clinical trials in the first half of 2026. Each signal supports growth, and no human expression data have yet been reported.

Structural limits show where progress could slow: unproven expression and safety in humans, delivery beyond targeted cells, immune effects and competition from linear mRNA and viral vectors. The brief therefore tracks four indicators: first-in-human data, trial starts, manufacturing cost per dose and new acquisitions or partnerships.

Regionally, North America leads on companies and deals, Asia-Pacific on a growing group of circular RNA developers, and Europe on academic research and manufacturing. In vivo cell therapy for autoimmune disease, then protein replacement in rare disease, then vaccines are the expected order of development.